Tuesday, January 31, 2012

HLIB Research 31 January 2012 (Public Bank; MAHB)

Public Bank (HOLD)

Continued To Deliver

§  4QFY11 results were in line with HLIB and consensus.   

§  2nd interim single-tier dividend of 28 sen.  FY11 total of 48 sen (48.3% payout), in line with HLIB's projection and company's unchanged dividend policy of circa 50%.

§  FY11 loans growth of 13.5% yoy slightly behind target of 14-15% and our assumption of 14% mainly due to overseas operations (only 7%) while domestic growth was 14.1%.

§  Targeting 12-13% FY12 loans and deposits growth (vs. HLIB's 11%) to offset anticipated 10-15bps erosion in NIM. 

§  Asset quality continued to improve and remained stable.  Guidance is for both asset quality and credit charge to stay stable with boost from full adoption of FRS139. 

§  No issue meeting Basel III requirements and will strive to maintain a lean capital structure.  BNM's concept paper on counter-cyclical capital buffer is expected by 2014.

§  FY12-13 forecasts raised by 1.4-1.9% following final results while we introduced FY14 forecast.

§  Thus, target price raised to RM13.90 (Gordon Growth with ROE of 24.3% and WACC of 9.6%) vs. RM13.45.

 

MAHB (BUY) 

§  MAHB has proposed raise RM600m for its revised RM3.6-3.9bn capex (previously RM2bn) of KLIA2,  through private placement exercise involving new share issuance of up to 10% of issued share capital or 110m shares.

§  The exercise is expected to be completed within 1H12.

§  The proposed private placement was within our expectation.

§  We have estimated earnings dilution impact of 4.6% in 2012 (half year impact) and 9.1% in 2013.

§  We are positive on the long term prospect of KLIA2 development backed by the continuous expansion of low cost airlines and strong demand for regional budget travelling.

§  Maintain Buy with unchanged target price of RM6.80.

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