Banking (Overweight)
Less Sanguine But Still LT Positive
§ Slower growth but absence of double-dip and blowup of Euro debt crisis will hold up asset quality.
§ Factoring lower 2012 loans growth of 9% (vs. 10%), lower non-interest income and preemptive provisioning.
§ Earnings forecasts cut by 0.3-13.2% (below consensus by 1.2-14.1%). Plus higher risk premium of 8.5% (vs. 8%), target prices cut by 6-26%.
§ Despite that, we are still expecting decent earnings growth while valuations are not stretch.
§ Volatility to persist but valuations unlikely to revisit 08 trough and should gravitate around post AFC means in LT.
§ Still positive about LT on resilient (albeit slower) domestic economic growth underpinned by consumerism, ETP and Petronas awards.
§ Foreign shareholding – except for AMMB, CIMB and RHB Cap, rest have relatively low exposures.
§ Maintain Overweight.
§ Top picks are Maybank and AFG – selection criteria: strong CASA franchise, strong capital ratios and asset quality, relatively low trading book to total assets, relatively low exposure to foreign shareholding and valuations that are not stretch.
§ AMMB, CIMB and RHB Cap have been downgrade to Hold.
Mah Sing (BUY)
Quick Turnaround Township In Rawang
§ Mah Sing is acquiring 225.7 acres of freehold land in Rawang by acquiring shares in Semai Meranti Sdn Bhd for RM92m, implying land acquisition cost of RM9.36 psf (<10% of GDV).
§ The Land will be developed into a lifestyle township, M Residence@Rawang, with estimated GDV of RM948m, offering beginner homes priced from RM390,000.
§ We are positive on this move as we believe the affordable pricing will result in strong take up rates. Also, launch is targeted in 1H 2012, in-line with their quick turnaround business model.
§ We maintain our price target (RM2.93) and earnings forecast for now, pending updates from management. Maintain BUY.
FBM KLCI: Rebound to continued but need higher volume to sustain
§ The strong overnight surge in Dow is expected to filter through to Asian markets today.
§ Technically, the formation of a Morning Star, the slight golden cross in the MACD and the 5-d SMA cut above the 10-d SMA suggest that yesterday rebound may continue. Volume need to consistently surge above the 1bn mark to sustain the rebound and test the psychological 1400.
§ Immediate resistance levels are the 1376 (5-d SMA), 1400, 1409 (mid Bollinger band) and 1430 (30-d SMA). Supports are situated at the psychological 1350, 1330 (lower Bollinger band), 1310 (26 Sep pivot low) and the other psychological 1300 level.
Dow: Above 10-d SMA
§ Technically, after second day of strong surge, the Dow has crossed above the 10-d SMA line at 10922, suggesting that the current rebound could test the mid Bollinger bank (or the 20-d SMA) at 11090. Again, for sustainability, volume needs to pick up.
§ Immediate resistance levels are the psychological 11k and 11,090 (mid Bollinger band) and 11568 (upper Bollinger Band) while support levels are the 10-d SMA, 10429 (38.2% FR – from low in Mar 09 to high in May 11) and 10390 (74.6% FR – from low in Jul 10 to high in May 11).
No comments:
Post a Comment