Thursday, May 31, 2012

SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Seadrill reduces stake

Maintain Buy and TP at MYR2.68. Seadrill's move to reduce its stake (-6%) in SapuraKencana is not unexpected and is consistent with its strategy in monetising gains from its investments. Fundamentally, this does not alter our perspective on SapuraKencana, which stays a Buy.

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Source: Maybank Research - 31 May 2012

Telekom Malaysia: Maintain Buy - Called and Raised

Not all cards are on the table yet. TM proved that it is not a one-trick pony in 1Q12. 1Q12 core net profit was above our expectation at 26% of our FY12 forecast. While Consumer Unifi continued to grow at breakneck speed, its other businesses in SME (which also benefited from strong Unifi growth), Enterprise and Government did better and earned significantly higher margins than Consumer. In fact, this is where the potential lies for even higher quality, sustained growth in the future. We urge investors to stay on the buy side and raise our conviction with a 12% higher EV-based TP of MYR6.21.

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Source: Maybank Research - 31 May 2012

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Perdana Petroleum: Maintain Hold - Murky Outlook But Potential M&A ?

Cutting TP to MYR0.55; maintain HOLD. Perdana's 1Q12 results were well below expectations, prompting us to: (i) forecast a loss of MYR11m for 2012 (vs. a profit of MYR25m previously), (ii) cut 2013 earnings by 90% and (iii) lower our TP to MYR0.55 (-34%), pegging the stock to a lower 0.6x P/BV (from 0.8x). Prospects are desolate but its trough valuations and a potential corporate exercise warrant a HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012

Mah Sing Group: Maintain Hold - A Good Start

Maintain HOLD. MSGB's reported 1Q12 net profit of MYR59.9m came in above expectations, accounting for 27-29% of our and consensus estimates. YTD locked-in sales of MYR1b are tracking its MYR2.5b 2012 target. MSGB’s move into township development in a big way is a positive, as the more resilient sales will help to cushion the slowdown in its high-rise projects. We raise our earnings forecasts by 2-7%. Our TP is raised to MYR1.83 (+6sen; 40% discount to RNAV).

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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012

Bumi Armada: Maintain Buy - In Line, Sailing Smooth

Maintain BUY and MYR4.88 target price. Results were within expectations. Bumi Armada offers strong earnings growth visibility (3-year net profit CAGR of 25%) and balance sheet strength to power its growth and aspirations. It is well-positioned to push for contracts in the FPSO, OSV, T&I and OFS segments locally and abroad. Our target price is based on sum-of-parts (SOP) valuations.

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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012

Petronas Chemicals: Maintain Buy - 1Q12: Within expectations

A smooth quarter. PCHEM's 1Q12 net profit of MYR1,019m (+3.3% YoY, +38.6% QoQ) was in-line with our MYR984m expectation but above consensus. It was a smooth quarter for the Company with high plant operational reliability, stable feedstock supply coupled with strong demand from customers. The associates' performance, however, was weak due to soft demand and low prices for its products. Maintain BUY, with an unchanged TP of MYR7.50 on 12x 2013 PER, the industry’s historical mean PER.

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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012

RHB Capital: Maintain Sell - Subdued 1Q12, OSK Terms In Line

SELL maintained. RHB Cap's 1Q12 results were within our expectations and consensus, while the pricing and acquisition terms for OSK too were not far from our estimates. Our forecasts are maintained, as is our SELL call. Our TP of MYR7.20 tags on a FY12 P/BV of 1.3x on a prospective FY12 ROE of 14%.

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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012

Monday, May 28, 2012

UEM Land: Maintain Hold - A Pale 1Q

Below expectations. UEML's 1Q12 net profit of MYR54.2m (+208% YoY,-62% QoQ) only accounted for 15-16% of our and consensus full-year estimates. The earnings gap was mainly due to slower-than-expected progress billings. We maintain our forecasts as we expect earnings to pick up in 2H supported by potential strategic land sales. Our target price is MYR2.05 (40% discount to our MYR3.40 RNAV).

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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012

Multi-Purpose Holdings: Maintain Buy - High Odds Of A Bright Future

All eyes on the demerger. Multi-Purpose Holdings' (MPHB) 1Q12 results were below expectations. We trim our FY12-14 earnings estimates by 5-10% p.a. and SOP-based TP by 2% to MYR3.87 to reflect stiffer competition. MPHB remains a high conviction BUY. Its recent proposal to demerge its gaming and non-gaming businesses will unlock value in the group. With 80% net DPR, the resulting MPHB (or Magnum) will also offer high dividend yields; we estimate a yield of 5.5% for FY13 based on MPHB's current share price.

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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012

Padiberas Nasional: Upgrade to Buy - Things are getting better

Upgrade to BUY. PATAMI of RM37.6m (-32.1% YoY, +105.9% QoQ) was within our expectation. 1Q12's average raw material cost (USD480/ton, we estimate) was a carry-over of the same stock from 4Q12. These stocks have been consumed and Bernas will start using its new stocks which are procured at lower cost. We expect ASPs to remain constant (rice selling price rarely goes down) and this will help boost profit and profit margins in 2012. Amid improving prospects, we upgrade Bernas to a Buy (from Hold). The stock offers an attractive total return of 20% (11% capital return + 9% net dividend yield) to our DDM based target price of RM3.40/share.

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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012

Friday, May 25, 2012

SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Secures MYR1.3b Contract Extension

Maintain BUY with a MYR2.68 TP. The one-year contract extension for PETRONAS' T&I work worth MYR1.3b is a positive for SapuraKencana's order book and provides extended earnings visibility. It also reflects the growing momentum of PETRONAS' contract flows in Malaysia. We expect order flows to intensify in 2H12, for several sizeable domestic projects are underway. Our target price pegs SapuraKencana at 20x FY1/14 EPS, supported by its robust growth prospects and lean balance sheet.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

Kossan Rubber Industries: Maintain Hold - Earnings To Improve

Within expectations. 1Q12 net profit of MYR22m (-8% QoQ, -4% YoY) was 21% of our full-year forecast and 19% of street estimates. We expect stronger earnings in sequential quarters on lower latex costs, better earnings contribution from its clean-room glove division and the commercialisation of new capacity in 2H12. But, we think the stock lacks stronger catalysts for now. We maintain our forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR3.50 (9.5x 2013 PER).

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

MBM Resources: Maintain Hold - As Anticipated

Maintain HOLD, TP at MYR2.83. 1Q12 results were on track. While the auto sector is in recovery mode and MBM's long-term strategic plans look promising, we reckon most of these positives are priced in. Our target price (ex-rights and bonus) pegs MBM at 7x FY13 EPS.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

JT International: Maintain Hold - Finally, A Special Dividend

Within expectations. JTI's 1Q12 net profit of MYR38m (+9% YoY, +108% QoQ) accounted for 30% and 29% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. This is within our expectation, considering that the bulk of marketing expenses would be end-loaded in 4Q. JTI announced a special net dividend of 56sen/share, which will be a short-term positive for JTI's share price, in our view. Despite the lack of other catalysts, the share price should be supported until the ex-dividend date on 8 Jun 2012. Maintain HOLD at an unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR6.20.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

AEON Co. (M): Maintain Hold - Weaker 1Q As Expected

Results in line. In anticipation of a seasonally stronger 2H, we deem AEON's 1Q12 net profit of MYR37m to be within expectations, at 18% of our and 17% of consensus full-year estimates. We continue to like AEON for its strong franchise and healthy fundamentals. The stock has re-rated from 10x (+/-) PER multiple to current 15-16x which should sustain considering its defensive earnings base amid a weak broader market. We maintain our HOLD call with a higher TP of MYR9.30 as we raise our FY13 PER peg by a notch to 15x.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

Ta Ann Holdings: Maintain Buy - Double Whammy

Below expectations. Ta Ann's 1Q12 core net profit of MYR11m (-70% QoQ, -57% YoY) accounted for 7% of our and 6% of consensus full year forecasts. The significant shortfall is due to a weak performance at the timber division, and lower palm oil earnings. We cut our FY12-14 net profit estimates by 16-20% but maintain our BUY call with a lower TP of MYR7.50 (-17%) based on an unchanged 15x FY13 PER. We advocate accumulating on dips, as short-term sentiment will continue to be affected by the poor results and recent CPO price weakness.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

Kuala Lumpur Kepong: Maintain Hold - A Weak Quarter

Earnings forecasts trimmed. KLK's 2QFY9/12 core net profit of MYR215m (-40% QoQ, -9% YoY) met just 15% of our FY9/12 net profit forecast, and was also below street estimates. We trim our FY9/12-14 core net profit estimates by 3.5-4.6% on lower plantation and manufacturing contributions. Our revised TP is MYR21.10 (previously MYR21.90) on an unchanged 16x FY9/13 PER. Maintain HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

CIMB Group Holdings: Maintain Sell - 2012 targets maintained

Earnings in-line. 1Q net profit of MYR1.0b (+10% YoY) was within our expectation and consensus at 24% of full-year estimates. Management remains upbeat and the domestic pipeline remains strong for the group. Amid capital market volatility, nevertheless, we continue to expect valuation premiums for the group to narrow against its conventional peers, with downside risk in the share price from its high foreign shareholding (33% ex MUFJ's 5%). Our Sell call is maintained with an unchanged MYR6.80 TP (1.8x P/BV, ROE 15.8%).

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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012

Thursday, May 24, 2012

AmanahRaya REIT: Maintain Hold - Higher Costs In 1Q

Maintain HOLD. ARREIT's 1Q12 results came in as expected, accounting for 22% of our and consensus full-year estimates. Its 1Q12 DPU of 1.81 sen was also in line. We expect a pick-up in earnings in the following quarters as refurbishment costs taper off, and hence our earnings forecasts and MYR0.95 DCF-based TP are maintained. Positive surprises could come from: 1) the sale of the Wisma UEP building in Subang Jaya and 2) new acquisitions.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Perisai Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Preparing For Growth

Maintain BUY; new TP at MYR1.20. 1Q12 results were broadly ahead of expectations, prompting a 5-6% upgrade in EPS and TP. Perisai is a growth stock with business credibility and Ezra as its strategic shareholder. While it has announced a venture into the rig charter business, a move into the FPSO market is still likely. Our TP is pegged to 11x 2013 EPS, comparable to peers with a sub-MYR1b market cap.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Hock Seng Lee: Maintain Buy - On Track

Maintain BUY. 1Q12 net profit of MYR19.6m (+11% YoY, -25% QoQ) made up 20% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. We maintain our 12% net profit growth forecast for FY12 and expect a stronger performance in subsequent quarters to be supported by an outstanding order book of MYR1b. Our target price is unchanged, pegged to 12x FY12 earnings. The current weak market offers an opportunity to accumulate the stock.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Eversendai Corporation: Maintain Buy - Good Growth To Sustain

Within expectations. 1Q12 net profit of MYR27m (-25% QoQ, +21% YoY) made up 19% of our FY12 forecast and 21% of street estimates. This is in line as 1Q is traditionally the softer quarter and we expect earnings to catch up with its strong outstanding order book of MYR1.9b (+33% YTD). We continue to like Eversendai for its bright job-flow prospects, coming from Middle East and also local power plant jobs. Maintain forecasts, BUY and TP of MYR2.17 (12x FY12 PER).

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Lingkaran Trans Kota Holdings: Maintain Hold - Higher Amortisation Hits Bottom Line

Losses in the final quarter. As forewarned, 4QFY3/12 results fell short of our expectations, with a net loss of MYR19m for the quarter due to higher amortisation of highway development expenditure after the latest toll revenue projections by the independent consultants. This spike in amortisation is a one-off P&L item in FY3/12 and as such, we leave our FY3/13-14 earnings forecasts and DCF projections unchanged. Our MYR4.30 TP is DCF-derived.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Star Publications (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - Not Good But Could Have Been Worse

Maintain HOLD. 1Q12 results were below expectations due to newspaper adex easing YoY and 64%-owned Cityneon Holdings incurring cost overruns. We trim our earnings estimates and ex-net cash DCF-based TP by 2-3%. We expect future quarters to be better due to adex-friendly events ahead. Star remains a HOLD for its stable and attractive net dividend yields of >5%.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

KLCC Property: Maintain Buy - A Solid Performance

Maintain BUY. KLCCP's 1Q12 core pretax profit was within our expectation (26% of our full-year forecast) but above consensus estimates (29%). We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR4.35 target price (15% discount to MYR5.12 RNAV). The listing of IGB REIT at a potential 5-5.5% cap rate could set a new benchmark for KLCCP's valuation (with properties valued at cap rates of just 6-7%) and re-rate the stock.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Guinness Anchor: Downgrade to Hold - Good Results Priced In

Continued growth, but largely priced in. 3QFY6/12 net profit of MYR51m (-21.7% QoQ; +5.2% YoY) was within expectations. 4Q tends to be the weakest quarter and without further clarity on increased dividends funded by its debt instruments, we see little impetus for the share price at this stage. Providing support, nevertheless, is a decent dividend yield of 4.6% for FY6/13. We maintain our MYR13.50 DCF-based TP but, with limited upside, we downgrade Guinness to a HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Multi-Purpose Holdings: Maintain Buy - On The Fast Track To Unlocking Value

Maintain BUY and SOP-based TP of MYR3.95. MPHB has proposed to demerge its gaming and non-gaming businesses into two separate listed entities. Although it will take more time to crystallise the value of MPHB's non-gaming businesses under SPV Capital (versus an outright sale of the non-gaming businesses, the "ideal" situation which will immediately crystalise their values), we believe that this exercise still unlocks value, justifying our BUY call.

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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

KFC Holdings (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - Unappealing side dishes

Within expectations. KFC's 1Q12 net profit of MYR32.5m was within expectations, at 20% of our and consensus full-year estimates. All segments recorded pretax losses except KFC Malaysia. There is no change to our earnings forecasts. The general offer price of MYR4.00 implies a prospective 2013 PER of 18.1x, a 51% premium to KFC’s historical PER mean of 12x since 2005. Pricing is decent, in our view, and investors should accept the general offer.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Alam Maritim Resources: Maintain Hold - Caught In Second Gear

Maintain HOLD with lower MYR0.60 TP. 1Q12 results disappointed, prompting a 23-27% cut in our FY12-13 earnings estimates and a 34% cut in TP to MYR0.60. With the share price down 32% YTD, Alam now trades at 0.8x PBV (below -1SD of its historical mean), suggesting an opportunity to buy at cheap valuations. But, the OSV outlook remains muted, with a flattish earnings outlook over the next three years. Our TP is pegged at an 8x FY13 PER (9x previously) as we cut target earnings multiple by a notch pricing in further earnings downside risk.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

KNM Group: Maintain Hold - Showing Signs Of Recovery

Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR0.88. 1Q12 surprises on the upside and was operationally positive for the 2nd consecutive quarter but the results were substantially skewed by several ones-offs and a tax credit. Overall, we have raised 2012 earnings by 40% to incorporate the tax credit. While share price has fallen by 28% YTD with the worst seemingly over for KNM, we remain cautious over its cost management abilities. KNM, in our view, needs to deliver a consistent set of quarterly results to warrant further re-rating. Our TP pegs KNM to 8x 2013 EPS.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

QL Resources: Maintain Buy - Buy For The Stable Growth Ahead

Maintain BUY. QL's FY3/12 net profit of MYR132m (+6% YoY) came below our expectations, making up 93% of our MYR142m full-year forecasts. We should nevertheless see a stronger contribution from its overseas operations in FY3/13-14 as capacity utilisation gathers momentum. We maintain our earnings estimates and reiterate our BUY call with an unchanged MYR3.75 DCF-based target price.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

WCT: Maintain Buy - Delivery on Track

No surprises. 1Q12 net profit of MYR40m (+7% YoY, -17% QoQ) is 23% of our and 22% of consensus’ full-year forecast. There is no change to our forecasts for a 6% growth in net profit this year, although there is a possibility that 2012 profits may be stronger due to revaluation gains on Paradigm. We reiterate our BUY call on the stock with an unchanged MYR3.15 SOP-based target price (15x 2012 earnings plus a 20sen increment from the KLIA2 IC concession).

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Axiata Group: Maintain Hold - Headwinds Persist

Nothing to see for now. The seasonally weaker 1Q12 came in at 22% of our full year forecasts, in line with expectations. Data grew strongly but at the expense of margins and free cashflow, a double whammy that is unlikely to lift until 2013. Regulatory risks in India and Bangladesh are key concerns, as are rising competitive risks in Malaysia courtesy of Maxis. Maintain HOLD with a raised EV-derived TP of MYR5.30 (+4%).

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

YTL Power International: Upgrade to Buy - Big Boost From 1Bestarinet

Maintain MYR2.05 TP but upgrade to BUY. YTL Power International (YTLP) reported results that were largely within expectations. That said, it was encouraging that YES is close to breaking even, likely due to the 1Bestarinet contract. YTLP attributed its cut in dividends to YES’ startup losses. Now that YES appears to be breaking even, dividends may be reinstated, we think. At current prices, YTLP is trading at close to trough valuations.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Malaysian Airline System: Upgrade to Hold - 1Q12: Losses, as expected

Slight improvement, more needed. MYR357m (+5.9% YoY, -54.5%) core net loss was within our MYR332m loss forecast, but below consensus. The impact of 13% higher jet fuel price YoY, a soft yield environment and on-going business restructuring costs made it a very challenging quarter for MAS. There was some disclosure on its funding plans, which should provide adequate capital for at least 1.5-2.0 years, by our estimate. We upgrade MAS to a Hold as the share price is close to our revised TP of MYR0.97 (-3%) post results housekeeping, pegged to 10x 2013 PER, which is the mid-level valuation of the aviation cycle.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Lafarge Malayan Cement: Maintain Hold - Steady but lacks excitement

Positives priced-in. Share price is flattish YTD and we see capped upside due to: (i) upcoming 1Q12 results, which, although likely to be higher YoY, they could be just within-or-below brokers' optimism-fuelled forecasts of 16% YoY growth for the full-year; (ii) valuation is already at its peak-cycle of 17x PER; and (iii) dividend yield of 5.2% net is only slightly better than decent. Hence, we maintain our Hold call and TP of MYR7.60 (17x 2013 PER).

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Bags Origin Energy Job

Maintain BUY with a MYR2.68 target price. While the earnings impact of the AUD51m EPCIC job from Origin Energy will be immaterial, the win reflects SapuraKencana’s aspiration to expand its regional footprint and capitalise on opportunities, both locally and abroad. We see SapuraKencana as a steady growth stock, asset rich and balance sheet light (low net gearing), which will aid its quest to add new assets in a highly capital intensive O&G environment. Our target price pegs SapuraKencana at 20x FY1/14 EPS. Valuations are inexpensive, considering the strong earnings growth outlook over the next three years and its balance sheet strength.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Automotive: Upgrade to Overweight - Turning Upbeat

Upgrade to Overweight. April's MoM contraction in TIV was expected, owing to inventory constraints and a high base in March, as major marques roll out deliveries from earlier pent-up demand. Overall, we are turning upbeat on the auto sector. We reckon most of the operating setbacks have been priced in. We now elevate the automotive sector to an Overweight following our recent upgrades of UMW and TCM to BUY. MBM remains a HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

TSH Resources: Maintain Hold - Hurt By Higher Costs, Lower Output

Below expectations. TSH's 1Q12 net profit of MYR15m (-42% QoQ, -37% YoY) accounts for 11% of our full year forecast. The shortfall is due to higher-than-expected costs on acceleration of manuring activity. Pending an update with management, our earnings forecasts, recommendation and TP of MYR2.78 (15x 2013 PER) are under review. Meanwhile, its share price has retreated 20% from its peak of MYR2.65 on lower CPO spot prices (12% off its peak).

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 Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012

Tan Chong Motor: Maintain Buy - Gearing up for recovery

Maintain Buy and TP of MYR5.38. As forewarned, 1Q12 results were poor but within expectation. Going forward, we remain upbeat on its prospect. Most of the operational setback has been priced in, while improving sales orders should translate into enhanced earnings. Valuations are undemanding. Our MYR5.38 TP, pegged to a 10x 2013 PER offers a 20% upside, undemanding for a 2-year prospective net profit CAGR of 27%.

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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012 

AmanahRaya REIT: Downgrade to Hold - Expect A Subdued Quarter

Downgrade to HOLD. ARREIT's 1Q12 results, which will be released by Wednesday, are likely to be subdued with an expected YoY decline in earnings mainly due to the loss of rental income at Wisma UEP since Jul 2011 and higher refurbishment costs. Near-term catalysts could come from: 1) the sale of the Wisma UEP building in Subang Jaya and 2) new acquisitions. We maintain our forecasts and MYR0.95 TP for now. ARREIT is fairly valued at the current price (7.9% gross yield).

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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012

Mah Sing Group: Maintain Hold - New Township To Shore Up Growth

Another township to sustain growth. We are positive on MSGB's latest land purchase in Bangi given its fair pricing and good location. More importantly, the new land, slated for the development of bread and butter-type products, will sustain MSGB's long-term growth. This will help to cushion the slowdown in sales of high-rise projects like Icon Residence. We adjust our 2012-14 earnings forecasts by -1.2% to 4.7% but maintain our MYR2.95 RNAV estimate. Target price is unchanged at MYR1.77 (40% discount to RNAV). HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012

Monday, May 21, 2012

Notion VTEC: Maintain Buy - Addressing the heart of the matter

Bullish sales guidance. We came away from Notion’s analyst briefing positive on its near-term earnings momentum. Management is bullish on its prospective sales (FY12: +34%, FY13: +26%), supported by the new baseplate outsourcing demand. We think market’s skepticism on the sustainability of Notion’s post Thai flood-driven sales has been largely addressed by Minebea’s decision to outsource for the mediumterm, at least. We upgrade our FY12-14 EPS by 11-32% but maintain our TP, pegging to its mean PER of 8x (4x EV/EBITDA previously).

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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012

KFC Holdings (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - EPF emerges as major shareholder

No changes to pricing. Save for EPF emerging as an affective 25% shareholder of Massive Equity (ME), the terms of KFC's and QSR's business disposals are the same. The proposed capital distribution is MYR4/share (+4.2% upside to current share price) for KFC and MYR6.80/share (+3.8%) for QSR. We maintain our Hold call on KFC.

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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012

Friday, May 18, 2012

Notion VTEC: Maintain Buy - The Unsung Hero

Results support our BUY call. Earnings have rebounded to above pre-Thai flood levels, with 2QFY9/12 net profit of MYR16m. While 1HFY9/12 net profit made up 40% and 33% of our and consensus fullyear forecasts respectively, this is in line as we expect a much stronger 2HFY9/12. There is a long-term vacuum in the HDD supply chain which Notion is filling. We think the stock is under-appreciated as its share price is still below pre-flood levels. Maintain forecasts, BUY rating and TP of MYR1.40 (4x EV/EBITDA), pending an analyst briefing today.

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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012

AMMB Holdings: Maintain Hold - Portfolio Rebalancing Continues

HOLD maintained. AMMB’s FY3/12 results were within our expectations and consensus. Taking into account management’s guidance for FY3/13-15, our forecasts are little changed. While we view positively the transformation at AMMB, valuations are fair and our TP of MYR6.30 is maintained (2012 P/BV of 1.6x, 14.1% ROE).

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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Media Prima: Maintain Hold - Down But Not Out

1Q12 likely to have been the trough. Media Prima’s (MPR) 1Q12 results were a tad below expectations due to a higher than expected discounting rate at its TV segment. No interim dividends were declared. That said, we are more upbeat on its prospects going forward due to signs of recovery in consumer sentiment and stabilising newsprint prices. Maintain earnings forecasts, HOLD call and MYR2.34 TP.

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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012

MISC: Upgrade to Hold - Down But Not Out

Upgrade to HOLD, TP revised to MYR4.80. 1Q12 results were hit by several one-offs and huge losses at the liner division. We expect earnings to recover in 2Q12 as MISC progressively exits from the liner operations. Trading below book value, we upgrade MISC to a HOLD.The upside to our new TP warrants a more aggressive call but at this stage, the outlook remains hazy for the petroleum and chemical divisions particularly amid rising external economic headwinds.

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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012

Hong Leong Bank: Maintain Hold - Solid, But Little To Excite In 3Q

Hold maintained. HL Bank's 9MFY12 net profit of MYR1.25b (+49% YoY) was broadly within our expectations (74% of full-year) and consensus (77%). Provisions were lower than expected, but this was offset by non-interest income coming in at the low end. Fundamentals of the group remain solid but there was little to excite in the results, with trailing loan growth and NIM compression. Our forecasts are retained. Our TP is unchanged at RM11.60 (P/BV of 1.7x, CY2012 ROE: 15.5%).

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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012

SapuraKencana Petroleum: Buy - New Outfit, Bright Prospect

Initiate coverage with a Buy and MYR2.68 target price. SapuraKencana is an emerging powerhouse with a regional reach, global aspiration and capabilities, and headed by a dedicated, experienced and professional management team. It is a steady growth stock, asset rich and balance sheet light, and well equipped to capitalize on opportunities, locally and globally. Our target price pegs SapuraKencana at 20x FY1/14 EPS, with upside bias.

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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Yinson Holdings: Maintain Buy - Steady On Course; Excitement Ahead!

Expecting bigger projects. Our two-day site visit to Yinson's operations in Vietnam uncovered promising prospects. We believe Yinson is gunning for a second floater job within the next 12 months, which would equate to a stellar win rate of one project per year. Developments are smooth at its associate Phu My Port, which could see potential earnings contribution by year end. We reiterate our BUY call and MYR2.20 SOP-based TP which implies 9x FY1/14 earnings.

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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012

WCT: Maintain Buy - On Track For Growth

Maintain BUY. 1Q12 results, due on 22 May, should not disappoint. We maintain our forecast of a 6% growth in net profit this year, although there is a possibility that 2012 profits may positively surprise due to revaluation gains. Strong property sales YTD and continuous job win momentum in the next few months would provide the growth impetus to 2013 earnings. We reiterate our BUY call on the stock with an unchanged MYR3.15 SOP-based target price (15x 2012 earnings plus a 20sen increment from the KLIA2 IC concession).

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 Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012

S P Setia: Maintain Hold - Expanding Its Presence In Penang

Maintain HOLD. We are neutral on SPSB's latest land acquisition on Penang island. Despite its strategic location, the MYR200psf land cost appears on the high side. We expect development on the new land to only contribute from FY10/15 onwards, hence there is no change to our 3-year earnings forecasts. Target price is raised by 7sen to MYR4.00 based on unchanged 10% discount to new MYR4.44 RNAV (+7sen).

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 Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012

Kinsteel: Maintain Buy - Don't Miss This Inflection Point

Turning around in 1Q12. 1Q12 net profit of MYR10m (4Q11: MYR68m core net loss) made up 21% and 19% of our and street 2012 forecasts respectively. We consider this to be outstanding, as we had only expected positive earnings in 2H12. Maintain forecasts, BUY rating and TP of MYR0.49 (0.7x P/BV) on: (i) earnings momentum, which should sustain on the rollout of mega projects in 2H12; (ii) a share price at a 3-year low, having fallen 29% over the last 3 months; and (iii) limited downside, as the stock is already trading at a low 2012 0.58x P/BV (vs. the trough of 0.5x in 2009 and mid-cycle of 0.9x).

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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012

Malaysian Airline System: Downgrade to Sell - 1Q12: It's going to be ugly

Industry downturn making its mark. 1Q12 is expected to be severely loss-making due to the impact of a 20% higher fuel price YoY and a weak yield environment. The remainder of the 2012 looks equally grim and we think MAS is struggling to get its turnaround strategy in place. We have cut our earnings forecasts due to higher than budgeted fuel price and a tougher yield environment. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower target price of MYR1.00 from MYR1.55, pegged to 10.0x 2013 PER, which is the mid-level valuation of the aviation cycle.

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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Bumi Armada: Maintain BUY - Buys two big-sized AHTS from Sanko

Maintain Buy and MYR4.88 SOP-based target price. Bumi's purchase of two second-hand 12,000bhp AHTS at undisclosed prices from Sanko is a clear indication of its intent to leverage on Petrobras' aggressive O&G drive in Brazil. We estimate that these assets would add 2-3% p.a. to Group's earnings and further enhances Bumi's regional footprint in the Latin American market.

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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012

Media Prima: Upgrade to Hold - Getting a better reception

Worst likely over. We expect 1Q12 results to be weak but following quarters to be stronger on recovering adex sentiment. Spot newsprint prices are stabilizing at USD680-USD700/tonne. Media Prima (MPR)'s balance sheet is stronger, allowing it to sustain recurring DPS at 10-11 sen p.a. thus delivering net yields of >4% p.a.. We raise our 2013-2014 earnings estimates by 11-13% and upgrade MPR to Hold from Sell as its share price is now below our unchanged TP of MYR2.34.

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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012

Monday, May 14, 2012

Glomac: Maintain BUY - Glowing And Growing

Our top pick in the property sector. Glomac is very likely to have exceeded its internal sales target of MYR500m for FY4/12 thanks to the strong take-ups of its Reflection Residences (RR) despite the slowdown in the broader property market. We continue to like Glomac for its double-digit earnings growth at single-digit valuations. The attractiveness is further enhanced by its REIT-like net yield of 4.9%. We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR0.96 target price (49% discount to RNAV). The stock is undervalued and should re-rate. BUY.

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 Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012

Kinsteel: Upgrade to BUY - It’s A Steal!

Upgrade to BUY. Share price has fallen by 30% from its peak in Feb 2012 and is at its 3-year low. More importantly, we expect Kinsteel to turnaround in its upcoming 1Q12 results on lower iron ore cost and better local sales. We maintain our forecasts and TP of MYR0.49 (0.7x P/BV). The stock now offers upside of 18%, hence we upgrade Kinsteel to a BUY. At current share price, the stock trades at 0.58x P/BV, close to its trough of 0.5x in 2009 and below its mid-cycle P/BV of 0.9x.

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Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012

Friday, May 11, 2012

Dialog Group: Maintain BUY - Below Par But Still Positive Overall

Maintain Buy. We cut FY6/12-13 forecasts by 2-17% following softer-than-expected 3QFY6/12 results. Nevertheless, we remain positive on Dialog's growth prospects; tank terminal operations in Johor will sustain earnings growth over the long term. Overall, Dialog offers exposure to a respectable business model, focused management, attractive earnings growth with an increasing proportion of recurring income, and a steady progressive dividend. Our SOP-based TP is unchanged at MYR3.05.

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Source: Maybank Research - 11 May 2012

Thursday, May 10, 2012

MMHE: Upgrade to BUY - Recovery In Motion

Upgrade to Buy, TP at MYR5.70 (20x 2013 EPS). 1Q12 results are on track (25% of our full-year forecast). Yard space has expanded and order book momentum is set to soar in 2H12. The improving outlook, coupled with a 44% fall in share price from its peak in 2011, makes MMHE's valuations much more attractive now, in our view. MMHE is a direct proxy to PETRONAS' domestic E&P programs.

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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012

Sunway Berhad: Maintain HOLD - Bags MYR1.2b MRT Contract

A major boost to orderbook. Sunway's latest MYR1.17b win for the KVMRT Sg Buloh-Kajang viaduct works will boost its outstanding order book by 41% to MYR4b, and enhance earnings visibility over the medium term. We maintain our earnings forecasts for now having imputed job win potential to the tune of MYR1.5b for this year. Our RNAV-based TP is unchanged at MYR2.62. Maintain HOLD.

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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012

Petronas Chemicals: Maintain BUY - 1Q12: Looking very positive

Supported by re-stoking and inventory buildup. 1Q12 results, to be released on the third week of May, is expected to be highly profitable, buoyed by high plant utilization rates of ±85% (1Q11: 83.6%) with no major maintenance shutdowns, and strong product margins. Worldwide manufacturing numbers were strong in 1Q12 which prompted heavy buying for re-stocking and inventory buildup ahead of the traditional maintenance shutdown period of March. BUY, with an unchanged TP of MYR7.50 on 12x 2013 PER, the industry's historical mean PER.

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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Sarawak Oil Palms: Maintain BUY - Fundamentals Intact

Still bullish. 1Q12 net profit of MYR40m (-8% QoQ, -29% YoY) met 17% and 18% of our and consensus full year forecasts respectively. This is largely in line with our expectations since 1Q is a seasonally low production period, compounded this time by slow uptake of CPO and increased fertilisation activities in 1Q12. Maintain BUY on SOP for its strong 3-year FFB CAGR of 13% and cheap valuations, with FY13 PER of 10.8x and EV/planted ha of ~MYR46,900.

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Hartalega: Maintain HOLD - Awaiting New Capacity For Growth

Results in line. FY12 core net profit of MYR208m (+11% YoY) was within expectations. We reiterate our HOLD call as near-term earnings growth is capped despite solid demand for nitrile gloves (+20-30% YoY), Hartalega is already running at full capacity and the bulk of the new capacity from Plant 6 will only kick in in 2QFY3/14. We maintain our FY3/13-14 forecasts and introduce estimates for FY3/15. Hartalega's 3-year earnings CAGR of 10% is respectable, coming from a high base. TP is also retained at MYR8.50, based on 13x CY13 PER.

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Padiberas Nasional: Maintain HOLD - 2012 looks better relative to 2011

Rice prices likely to be low. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) published its annual world rice outlook last week. The pertinent points stated are production exceeds supply and inventory levels are at record levels; the quick conclusion is that global rice prices will likely trend down. This is good news for Bernas as it will be able to source rice at lower cost and help boost margins and profits. No change to our earnings forecasts which have incorporated margin expansion. We maintain our Hold call given the limited upside to our DDM-based RM3.40 target price.

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Perisai Petroleum: Maintain BUY - Entering the Rig Charter Space

Maintain Buy, TP of MYR1.13. Perisai has opted to buy a new jack-up rig (with a Jul 2014 delivery date) with the option to acquire another (for delivery by 2015). This is earnings positive and balance-sheet manageable. We have highlighted a likely extension to its business in the past although we reckoned a FPSO venture would have been a more likely prospect. We still do not rule out this FPSO venture, which would be a re-rating catalyst. Our TP tags Perisai at 11x 2013 EPS.

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Kencana Petroleum: Maintain BUY - The making of SapCrest-Kencana

Maintain Buy with a MYR3.86 target price. The MYR0.5b job win from Murphy, its second contract from the oil major in 2012, is positive and reflects vibrant O&G activities in the region. With peer MMHE facing yard bottlenecks, we expect Kencana, with its ample yard space, to be a major beneficiary among fabricators this year. We maintain our forecasts, having incorporated MYR2b in job wins for 2012. MYR5b worth of fabrication jobs are expected to be rolled out this year.

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

CIMB Group Holdings: Maintain SELL - A 60% Stake In BOC For MYR881m

No material impact. The acquisition of Bank of Commerce (BOC), Philippines expands CIMB's presence into one of the most under-banked markets in the region (loans/GDP of just 30%). There is no material impact to financials in the medium term; however, as the 16th largest bank in the country, there is much competition ahead. Our forecasts for CIMB Group are maintained along with our Sell call and MYR6.80 TP (P/BV target of 1.9x, 2012 ROE: 16.1%).

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Ann Joo Resources: Upgrade to BUY - Buy Ahead of Secular Demand Growth

Upgrade to Buy. We are turning positive on AJR due to: (i) pent-up local steel demand from 2H12 onwards; (ii) a potential long-term high-margin vendor contract from Petronas; (iii) stronger earnings in 2H12 upon the completion of the fine-tuning of its mini-blast furnace (BF) offsetting continued expected losses in the upcoming 1Q12 results. We maintain our forecasts for now but our TP is raised to MYR2.20 (from MYR1.30), as we attach a mid-cycle 1.0x P/BV target (vs. 0.6x trough).

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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Pavilion REIT: Maintain Hold - A Good Start

Maintain HOLD but raising TP. PavREIT's 1Q12 net profit was in line, accounting for 28% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We reckon the recent run up in its share price was due to spillover effects of the potential REIT-ing of Kris Assets' retail malls. We maintain our earnings forecasts but raise our target price to MYR1.26. PavREIT currently trades at a 5.1% yield vs. CMMT's 5.8% and SunREIT's 6.1%.

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 Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012

MSM Malaysia Holdings: Maintain Hold - 1Q12: Below expectation

Raw sugar price and inadequate subsidy. 1Q12 core net profit of RM64.1m (-27.8% YoY, -15.5% QoQ) after excluding non-cash items was below ours and consensus, at 23% of our full-year forecast. This weaker result underlines that the recent sugar subsidy mechanism revised by the government does not sufficiently compensate for the higher raw sugar input cost. This is a structural problem which is not easy for MSM to muddle out from, and we believe that lower profit margins will prevail in the quarters to come.

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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012

Fraser & Neave Holdings: Maintain Sell - A Huge Miss

Below expectations. Recurring group net profit plunged 80% YoY in 2QFY9/12 to just MYR17m, far below our and consensus estimates. Cumulatively, recurring net profit in 1HFY9/12 was down 76% YoY. The poor results were due to the floods in Thailand that caused the Dairies Thailand plant in Rojana to report further losses in 2QFY9/12 after being submerged for 40 days last year, and were exacerbated by the relocation of Dairies Malaysia from Petaling Jaya to Pulau Indah. We maintain our Sell call and target price pending an analyst briefing today.

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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012

Monday, May 7, 2012

Lingkaran Trans Kota: Maintain Hold - Awaiting the Next Catalyst

Maintain Hold. Traffic at the LDP has been higher than our forecast. We therefore raise our traffic assumption for FY3/12, but marginally lower our forecasts for future years after considering new competition. This raises highway development amortisation, resulting in our net profit forecasts for FY3/12-14 being lowered by 6-8% p.a.. The impact on our DCF-based target price is however muted, as the higher FY3/12 traffic assumption offsets lower traffic forecasts for the future years, and as the raised amortisation charge in the P&L is a non-cash flow item.

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Source: Maybank Research - 7 May 2012

Friday, May 4, 2012

Quill Capita Trust: Maintain Hold - Organically-driven growth

No surprises. QCT's 3M12 results were in line, accounting for 21-23% of our and consensus full-year estimates. As expected, no dividend was declared. No change to our earnings forecasts and MYR1.10 TP. Despite its higher-than-average yield of 7.7% (gross) (vs. industry's 6.8%), we maintain our Hold rating on QCT as we see high occupancy risk in office REITs given the current oversupply situation.

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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012

BIMB Holdings: Maintain Buy - Hurdles for STMB in Indonesia?

No material impact. While there may be uncertainty surrounding Syarikat Takaful's (STMB) shareholding in PT Syarikat Takaful Indonesia (PT Takaful), we do not expect this to affect our earnings nor valuations for the BIMB group. Growth over the next few years will be driven by domestic activities while Indonesia really is the icing on the cake over the longer term. Our Buy call on BIMB is maintained with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of MYR2.95.

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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Perisai Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Crafting the next move

An FPSO venture in the pipeline? We think Perisai will move into the FPSO charter market for its next Malaysia project. This will be a major positive and would be a catalyst to growth and re-rating. Its major shareholder, Ezra will likely play a role in this development. Our preliminary estimate suggests that this could lift EPS by 18% p.a. while still keeping Perisai's net gearing at manageable level. Maintain Buy.

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Source: Maybank Research - 3 May 2012

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Quill Capita Trust: Maintain Hold - Driven by existing assets

Reiterate HOLD. QCT's 1Q12 results (to be released by tomorrow) are likely to meet expectations. Expected 11% YoY growth in earnings will be supported by existing assets given the lack of acquisitions last year. Over the medium term, we continue to expect interests on office REITs to be lacklustre given the current oversupply situation. We maintain our forecasts and MYR1.10 TP on QCT. QCT now trades at 7.6% yield.

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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012

BIMB Holdings: Maintain Buy - Higher valuations warranted

BUY, with a higher target price. Higher valuations are warranted for both Bank Islam and Syarikat Takaful (STMB), given their strong underlying fundamentals. Pegging on higher P/BV valuations for both companies, our SOP valuation for BIMB Holdings is raised to MYR2.95 from MYR2.55, which implies 16% upside to the current share price. Our revised target P/BV multiple for STMB (Not Rated) values the takaful operator at MYR4.75, or 20% upside to its current share price.

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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012