Maintain Buy and TP at MYR2.68. Seadrill's move to reduce its stake
(-6%) in SapuraKencana is not unexpected and is consistent with its
strategy in monetising gains from its investments. Fundamentally, this
does not alter our perspective on SapuraKencana, which stays a Buy.
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Source: Maybank Research - 31 May 2012
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Thursday, May 31, 2012
Telekom Malaysia: Maintain Buy - Called and Raised
Not all cards are on the table yet. TM proved that it is not a one-trick
pony in 1Q12. 1Q12 core net profit was above our expectation at 26% of
our FY12 forecast. While Consumer Unifi continued to grow at breakneck
speed, its other businesses in SME (which also benefited from strong
Unifi growth), Enterprise and Government did better and earned
significantly higher margins than Consumer. In fact, this is where the
potential lies for even higher quality, sustained growth in the future.
We urge investors to stay on the buy side and raise our conviction with a
12% higher EV-based TP of MYR6.21.
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Source: Maybank Research - 31 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 31 May 2012
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Perdana Petroleum: Maintain Hold - Murky Outlook But Potential M&A ?
Cutting TP to MYR0.55; maintain HOLD. Perdana's 1Q12 results were well
below expectations, prompting us to: (i) forecast a loss of MYR11m for
2012 (vs. a profit of MYR25m previously), (ii) cut 2013 earnings by 90%
and (iii) lower our TP to MYR0.55 (-34%), pegging the stock to a lower
0.6x P/BV (from 0.8x). Prospects are desolate but its trough valuations
and a potential corporate exercise warrant a HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
Mah Sing Group: Maintain Hold - A Good Start
Maintain HOLD. MSGB's reported 1Q12 net profit of MYR59.9m came in above
expectations, accounting for 27-29% of our and consensus estimates. YTD
locked-in sales of MYR1b are tracking its MYR2.5b 2012 target. MSGB’s
move into township development in a big way is a positive, as the more
resilient sales will help to cushion the slowdown in its high-rise
projects. We raise our earnings forecasts by 2-7%. Our TP
is raised to MYR1.83 (+6sen; 40% discount to RNAV).
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
Bumi Armada: Maintain Buy - In Line, Sailing Smooth
Maintain BUY and MYR4.88 target price. Results were within
expectations. Bumi Armada offers strong earnings growth visibility
(3-year net profit CAGR of 25%) and balance sheet strength to power its
growth and aspirations. It is well-positioned to push for contracts in
the FPSO, OSV, T&I and OFS segments locally and abroad. Our target
price is based on sum-of-parts (SOP) valuations.
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
Petronas Chemicals: Maintain Buy - 1Q12: Within expectations
A smooth quarter. PCHEM's 1Q12 net profit of MYR1,019m (+3.3% YoY,
+38.6% QoQ) was in-line with our MYR984m expectation but above
consensus. It was a smooth quarter for the Company with high plant
operational reliability, stable feedstock supply coupled with strong
demand from customers. The associates' performance, however, was weak
due to soft demand and low prices for its products. Maintain BUY, with
an unchanged TP of MYR7.50 on 12x 2013 PER, the industry’s
historical mean PER.
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
RHB Capital: Maintain Sell - Subdued 1Q12, OSK Terms In Line
SELL maintained. RHB Cap's 1Q12 results were within our
expectations and consensus, while the pricing and acquisition terms for
OSK too were not far from our estimates. Our forecasts are maintained,
as is our SELL call. Our TP of MYR7.20 tags on a FY12 P/BV of 1.3x on a
prospective FY12 ROE of 14%.
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 29 May 2012
Monday, May 28, 2012
UEM Land: Maintain Hold - A Pale 1Q
Below expectations. UEML's 1Q12 net profit of MYR54.2m (+208% YoY,-62%
QoQ) only accounted for 15-16% of our and consensus full-year estimates.
The earnings gap was mainly due to slower-than-expected progress
billings. We maintain our forecasts as we expect earnings to pick up in
2H supported by potential strategic land sales. Our target price is
MYR2.05 (40% discount to our MYR3.40 RNAV).
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
Multi-Purpose Holdings: Maintain Buy - High Odds Of A Bright Future
All eyes on the demerger. Multi-Purpose Holdings' (MPHB) 1Q12 results
were below expectations. We trim our FY12-14 earnings estimates by 5-10%
p.a. and SOP-based TP by 2% to MYR3.87 to reflect stiffer competition.
MPHB remains a high conviction BUY. Its recent proposal to demerge its
gaming and non-gaming businesses will unlock value in the group. With
80% net DPR, the resulting MPHB (or Magnum) will also offer high
dividend yields; we estimate a yield of 5.5% for FY13 based on MPHB's
current share price.
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
Padiberas Nasional: Upgrade to Buy - Things are getting better
Upgrade to BUY. PATAMI of RM37.6m (-32.1% YoY, +105.9% QoQ) was within
our expectation. 1Q12's average raw material cost (USD480/ton, we
estimate) was a carry-over of the same stock from 4Q12. These stocks
have been consumed and Bernas will start using its new stocks which are
procured at lower cost. We expect ASPs to remain constant (rice selling
price rarely goes down) and this will help boost profit and profit
margins in 2012. Amid improving prospects, we upgrade Bernas to a Buy
(from Hold). The stock offers an attractive total return of 20% (11%
capital return + 9% net dividend yield) to our DDM based target price of
RM3.40/share.
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 28 May 2012
Friday, May 25, 2012
SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Secures MYR1.3b Contract Extension
Maintain BUY with a MYR2.68 TP. The one-year contract extension for
PETRONAS' T&I work worth MYR1.3b is a positive for SapuraKencana's
order book and provides extended earnings visibility. It also reflects
the growing momentum of PETRONAS' contract flows in Malaysia. We expect
order flows to intensify in 2H12, for several sizeable domestic projects
are underway. Our target price pegs SapuraKencana at 20x FY1/14 EPS,
supported by its robust growth prospects and lean balance sheet.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
Kossan Rubber Industries: Maintain Hold - Earnings To Improve
Within expectations. 1Q12 net profit of MYR22m (-8% QoQ, -4% YoY) was
21% of our full-year forecast and 19% of street estimates. We expect
stronger earnings in sequential quarters on lower latex costs, better
earnings contribution from its clean-room glove division and the
commercialisation of new capacity in 2H12. But, we think the stock lacks
stronger catalysts for now. We maintain our forecasts, HOLD call and TP
of MYR3.50 (9.5x 2013 PER).
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
MBM Resources: Maintain Hold - As Anticipated
Maintain HOLD, TP at MYR2.83. 1Q12 results were on track. While the auto
sector is in recovery mode and MBM's long-term strategic plans look
promising, we reckon most of these positives are priced in. Our target
price (ex-rights and bonus) pegs MBM at 7x FY13 EPS.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
JT International: Maintain Hold - Finally, A Special Dividend
Within expectations. JTI's 1Q12 net profit of MYR38m (+9% YoY, +108%
QoQ) accounted for 30% and 29% of our and consensus full-year forecasts.
This is within our expectation, considering that the bulk of marketing
expenses would be end-loaded in 4Q. JTI announced a special net dividend
of 56sen/share, which will be a short-term positive for JTI's share
price, in our view. Despite the lack of other catalysts, the share price
should be supported until the ex-dividend date on 8 Jun 2012. Maintain
HOLD at an unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR6.20.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
AEON Co. (M): Maintain Hold - Weaker 1Q As Expected
Results in line. In anticipation of a seasonally stronger 2H, we deem
AEON's 1Q12 net profit of MYR37m to be within expectations, at 18% of
our and 17% of consensus full-year estimates. We continue to like AEON
for its strong franchise and healthy fundamentals. The stock has
re-rated from 10x (+/-) PER multiple to current 15-16x which should
sustain considering its defensive earnings base amid a weak broader
market. We maintain our HOLD call with a higher TP of MYR9.30 as we
raise our FY13 PER peg by a notch to 15x.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
Ta Ann Holdings: Maintain Buy - Double Whammy
Below expectations. Ta Ann's 1Q12 core net profit of MYR11m (-70% QoQ,
-57% YoY) accounted for 7% of our and 6% of consensus full year
forecasts. The significant shortfall is due to a weak performance at the
timber division, and lower palm oil earnings. We cut our FY12-14 net
profit estimates by 16-20% but maintain our BUY call with a lower TP of
MYR7.50 (-17%) based on an unchanged 15x FY13 PER. We advocate
accumulating on dips, as short-term sentiment will continue to be
affected by the poor results and recent CPO price weakness.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
Kuala Lumpur Kepong: Maintain Hold - A Weak Quarter
Earnings forecasts trimmed. KLK's 2QFY9/12 core net profit of MYR215m
(-40% QoQ, -9% YoY) met just 15% of our FY9/12 net profit forecast, and
was also below street estimates. We trim our FY9/12-14 core net profit
estimates by 3.5-4.6% on lower plantation and manufacturing
contributions. Our revised TP is MYR21.10 (previously MYR21.90) on an
unchanged 16x FY9/13 PER. Maintain HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
CIMB Group Holdings: Maintain Sell - 2012 targets maintained
Earnings in-line. 1Q net profit of MYR1.0b (+10% YoY) was within our
expectation and consensus at 24% of full-year estimates. Management
remains upbeat and the domestic pipeline remains strong for the group.
Amid capital market volatility, nevertheless, we continue to expect
valuation premiums for the group to narrow against its conventional
peers, with downside risk in the share price from its high foreign
shareholding (33% ex MUFJ's 5%). Our Sell call is maintained with an
unchanged MYR6.80 TP (1.8x P/BV, ROE 15.8%).
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 25 May 2012
Thursday, May 24, 2012
AmanahRaya REIT: Maintain Hold - Higher Costs In 1Q
Maintain HOLD. ARREIT's 1Q12 results came in as expected, accounting for
22% of our and consensus full-year estimates. Its 1Q12 DPU of 1.81 sen
was also in line. We expect a pick-up in earnings in the following
quarters as refurbishment costs taper off, and hence our earnings
forecasts and MYR0.95 DCF-based TP are maintained. Positive surprises
could come from: 1) the sale of the Wisma UEP building in Subang Jaya
and 2) new acquisitions.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Perisai Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Preparing For Growth
Maintain BUY; new TP at MYR1.20. 1Q12 results were broadly ahead of
expectations, prompting a 5-6% upgrade in EPS and TP. Perisai is a
growth stock with business credibility and Ezra as its strategic
shareholder. While it has announced a venture into the rig charter
business, a move into the FPSO market is still likely. Our TP is pegged
to 11x 2013 EPS, comparable to peers with a sub-MYR1b market cap.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Hock Seng Lee: Maintain Buy - On Track
Maintain BUY. 1Q12 net profit of MYR19.6m (+11% YoY, -25% QoQ) made up
20% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. We maintain our 12% net
profit growth forecast for FY12 and expect a stronger performance in
subsequent quarters to be supported by an outstanding order book of
MYR1b. Our target price is unchanged, pegged to 12x FY12 earnings. The
current weak market offers an opportunity to accumulate the stock.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Eversendai Corporation: Maintain Buy - Good Growth To Sustain
Within expectations. 1Q12 net profit of MYR27m (-25% QoQ, +21% YoY) made
up 19% of our FY12 forecast and 21% of street estimates. This is in
line as 1Q is traditionally the softer quarter and we expect earnings to
catch up with its strong outstanding order book of MYR1.9b (+33% YTD).
We continue to like Eversendai for its bright job-flow prospects, coming
from Middle East and also local power plant jobs. Maintain forecasts,
BUY and TP of MYR2.17 (12x FY12 PER).
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Lingkaran Trans Kota Holdings: Maintain Hold - Higher Amortisation Hits Bottom Line
Losses in the final quarter. As forewarned, 4QFY3/12 results fell short
of our expectations, with a net loss of MYR19m for the quarter due to
higher amortisation of highway development expenditure after the latest
toll revenue projections by the independent consultants. This spike in
amortisation is a one-off P&L item in FY3/12 and as such, we leave
our FY3/13-14 earnings forecasts and DCF projections unchanged. Our
MYR4.30 TP is DCF-derived.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Star Publications (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - Not Good But Could Have Been Worse
Maintain HOLD. 1Q12 results were below expectations due to newspaper
adex easing YoY and 64%-owned Cityneon Holdings incurring cost overruns.
We trim our earnings estimates and ex-net cash DCF-based TP by 2-3%. We
expect future quarters to be better due to adex-friendly events ahead.
Star remains a HOLD for its stable and attractive net dividend yields of
>5%.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
KLCC Property: Maintain Buy - A Solid Performance
Maintain BUY. KLCCP's 1Q12 core pretax profit was within our expectation
(26% of our full-year forecast) but above consensus estimates (29%). We
maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR4.35 target price (15% discount
to MYR5.12 RNAV). The listing of IGB REIT at a potential 5-5.5% cap rate
could set a new benchmark for KLCCP's valuation (with properties valued
at cap rates of just 6-7%) and re-rate the stock.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Guinness Anchor: Downgrade to Hold - Good Results Priced In
Continued growth, but largely priced in. 3QFY6/12 net profit of MYR51m
(-21.7% QoQ; +5.2% YoY) was within expectations. 4Q tends to be the
weakest quarter and without further clarity on increased dividends
funded by its debt instruments, we see little impetus for the share
price at this stage. Providing support, nevertheless, is a decent
dividend yield of 4.6% for FY6/13. We maintain our MYR13.50 DCF-based TP
but, with limited upside, we downgrade Guinness to a HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Multi-Purpose Holdings: Maintain Buy - On The Fast Track To Unlocking Value
Maintain BUY and SOP-based TP of MYR3.95. MPHB has proposed to demerge
its gaming and non-gaming businesses into two separate listed entities.
Although it will take more time to crystallise the value of MPHB's
non-gaming businesses under SPV Capital (versus an outright sale of the
non-gaming businesses, the "ideal" situation which will immediately
crystalise their values), we believe that this exercise still unlocks
value, justifying our BUY call.
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 24 May 2012
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
KFC Holdings (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - Unappealing side dishes
Within expectations. KFC's 1Q12 net profit of MYR32.5m was within
expectations, at 20% of our and consensus full-year estimates. All
segments recorded pretax losses except KFC Malaysia. There is no change
to our earnings forecasts. The general offer price of MYR4.00 implies a
prospective 2013 PER of 18.1x, a 51% premium to KFC’s historical PER
mean of 12x since 2005. Pricing is decent, in our view, and investors
should accept the general offer.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Alam Maritim Resources: Maintain Hold - Caught In Second Gear
Maintain HOLD with lower MYR0.60 TP. 1Q12 results disappointed,
prompting a 23-27% cut in our FY12-13 earnings estimates and a 34% cut
in TP to MYR0.60. With the share price down 32% YTD, Alam now trades at
0.8x PBV (below -1SD of its historical mean), suggesting an opportunity
to buy at cheap valuations. But, the OSV outlook remains muted, with a
flattish earnings outlook over the next three years. Our
TP is pegged at an 8x FY13 PER (9x previously) as we cut target earnings
multiple by a notch pricing in further earnings downside risk.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
KNM Group: Maintain Hold - Showing Signs Of Recovery
Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR0.88. 1Q12 surprises on the upside and
was operationally positive for the 2nd consecutive quarter but the
results were substantially skewed by several ones-offs and a tax credit.
Overall, we have raised 2012 earnings by 40% to incorporate the tax
credit. While share price has fallen by 28% YTD with the worst seemingly
over for KNM, we remain cautious over its cost management
abilities. KNM, in our view, needs to deliver a consistent set of
quarterly results to warrant further re-rating. Our TP pegs KNM to 8x
2013 EPS.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
QL Resources: Maintain Buy - Buy For The Stable Growth Ahead
Maintain BUY. QL's FY3/12 net profit of MYR132m (+6% YoY) came below our
expectations, making up 93% of our MYR142m full-year forecasts. We
should nevertheless see a stronger contribution from its overseas
operations in FY3/13-14 as capacity utilisation gathers momentum. We
maintain our earnings estimates and reiterate our BUY call with an
unchanged MYR3.75 DCF-based target price.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
WCT: Maintain Buy - Delivery on Track
No surprises. 1Q12 net profit of MYR40m (+7% YoY, -17% QoQ) is 23% of
our and 22% of consensus’ full-year forecast. There is no change to our
forecasts for a 6% growth in net profit this year, although there is a
possibility that 2012 profits may be stronger due to revaluation gains
on Paradigm. We reiterate our BUY call on the stock with an unchanged
MYR3.15 SOP-based target price (15x 2012 earnings plus a 20sen increment
from the KLIA2 IC concession).
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Axiata Group: Maintain Hold - Headwinds Persist
Nothing to see for now. The seasonally weaker 1Q12 came in at 22% of our
full year forecasts, in line with expectations. Data grew strongly but
at the expense of margins and free cashflow, a double whammy that is
unlikely to lift until 2013. Regulatory risks in India and Bangladesh
are key concerns, as are rising competitive risks in Malaysia courtesy
of Maxis. Maintain HOLD with a raised EV-derived TP of MYR5.30 (+4%).
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
YTL Power International: Upgrade to Buy - Big Boost From 1Bestarinet
Maintain MYR2.05 TP but upgrade to BUY. YTL Power International (YTLP)
reported results that were largely within expectations. That said, it
was encouraging that YES is close to breaking even, likely due to the
1Bestarinet contract. YTLP attributed its cut in dividends to YES’
startup losses. Now that YES appears to be breaking even, dividends may
be reinstated, we think. At current prices, YTLP is trading at close
to trough valuations.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Malaysian Airline System: Upgrade to Hold - 1Q12: Losses, as expected
Slight improvement, more needed. MYR357m (+5.9% YoY, -54.5%) core net
loss was within our MYR332m loss forecast, but below consensus. The
impact of 13% higher jet fuel price YoY, a soft yield environment and
on-going business restructuring costs made it a very challenging quarter
for MAS. There was some disclosure on its funding plans, which should
provide adequate capital for at least 1.5-2.0 years,
by our estimate. We upgrade MAS to a Hold as the share price is close to
our revised TP of MYR0.97 (-3%) post results housekeeping, pegged to
10x 2013 PER, which is the mid-level valuation of the aviation cycle.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Lafarge Malayan Cement: Maintain Hold - Steady but lacks excitement
Positives priced-in. Share price is flattish YTD and we see capped
upside due to: (i) upcoming 1Q12 results, which, although likely to be
higher YoY, they could be just within-or-below brokers' optimism-fuelled
forecasts of 16% YoY growth for the full-year; (ii) valuation is
already at its peak-cycle of 17x PER; and (iii) dividend yield of 5.2%
net is only slightly better than decent. Hence, we maintain our Hold
call and TP of
MYR7.60 (17x 2013 PER).
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
SapuraKencana Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Bags Origin Energy Job
Maintain BUY with a MYR2.68 target price. While the earnings
impact of the AUD51m EPCIC job from Origin Energy will be
immaterial, the win reflects SapuraKencana’s aspiration to expand its
regional footprint and capitalise on opportunities, both locally and
abroad. We see SapuraKencana as a steady growth stock, asset rich and
balance sheet light (low net gearing), which will aid its quest to add
new assets in a highly capital intensive O&G environment. Our target
price pegs SapuraKencana at 20x FY1/14 EPS. Valuations are
inexpensive, considering the strong earnings growth outlook over the
next three years and its balance sheet strength.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Automotive: Upgrade to Overweight - Turning Upbeat
Upgrade to Overweight. April's MoM contraction in TIV was expected,
owing to inventory constraints and a high base in March, as major
marques roll out deliveries from earlier pent-up demand. Overall, we are
turning upbeat on the auto sector. We reckon most of the operating
setbacks have been priced in. We now elevate the automotive sector to an
Overweight following our recent upgrades of UMW and TCM to
BUY. MBM remains a HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 23 May 2012
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
TSH Resources: Maintain Hold - Hurt By Higher Costs, Lower Output
Below expectations. TSH's 1Q12 net profit of MYR15m (-42% QoQ, -37% YoY)
accounts for 11% of our full year forecast. The shortfall is due to
higher-than-expected costs on acceleration of manuring activity. Pending
an update with management, our earnings forecasts, recommendation and
TP of MYR2.78 (15x 2013 PER) are under review. Meanwhile, its share
price has retreated 20% from its peak of MYR2.65 on lower CPO spot
prices (12% off its peak).
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
Tan Chong Motor: Maintain Buy - Gearing up for recovery
Maintain Buy and TP of MYR5.38. As forewarned, 1Q12 results were poor
but within expectation. Going forward, we remain upbeat on its prospect.
Most of the operational setback has been priced in, while improving
sales orders should translate into enhanced earnings. Valuations are
undemanding. Our MYR5.38 TP, pegged to a 10x 2013 PER offers a 20%
upside, undemanding for a 2-year prospective net profit CAGR of 27%.
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
AmanahRaya REIT: Downgrade to Hold - Expect A Subdued Quarter
Downgrade to HOLD. ARREIT's 1Q12 results, which will be released by
Wednesday, are likely to be subdued with an expected YoY decline in
earnings mainly due to the loss of rental income at Wisma UEP since Jul
2011 and higher refurbishment costs. Near-term catalysts could come
from: 1) the sale of the Wisma UEP building in Subang Jaya and
2) new acquisitions. We maintain our forecasts and MYR0.95 TP for now.
ARREIT is fairly valued at the current price (7.9% gross yield).
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
Mah Sing Group: Maintain Hold - New Township To Shore Up Growth
Another township to sustain growth. We are positive on MSGB's latest
land purchase in Bangi given its fair pricing and good location. More
importantly, the new land, slated for the development of bread and
butter-type products, will sustain MSGB's long-term growth. This will
help to cushion the slowdown in sales of high-rise projects like Icon
Residence. We adjust our 2012-14 earnings forecasts by -1.2% to 4.7% but
maintain our MYR2.95 RNAV estimate. Target price is unchanged at
MYR1.77 (40% discount to RNAV). HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 22 May 2012
Monday, May 21, 2012
Notion VTEC: Maintain Buy - Addressing the heart of the matter
Bullish sales guidance. We came away from Notion’s analyst briefing
positive on its near-term earnings momentum. Management is bullish on
its prospective sales (FY12: +34%, FY13: +26%), supported by the new
baseplate outsourcing demand. We think market’s skepticism on the
sustainability of Notion’s post Thai flood-driven sales has been largely
addressed by Minebea’s decision to outsource for the mediumterm, at
least. We upgrade our FY12-14 EPS by 11-32% but maintain our TP, pegging
to its mean PER of 8x (4x EV/EBITDA previously).
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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012
KFC Holdings (Malaysia): Maintain Hold - EPF emerges as major shareholder
No changes to pricing. Save for EPF emerging as an affective 25%
shareholder of Massive Equity (ME), the terms of KFC's and QSR's
business disposals are the same. The proposed capital distribution is
MYR4/share (+4.2% upside to current share price) for KFC and
MYR6.80/share (+3.8%) for QSR. We maintain our Hold call on KFC.
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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 21 May 2012
Friday, May 18, 2012
Notion VTEC: Maintain Buy - The Unsung Hero
Results support our BUY call. Earnings have rebounded to above pre-Thai
flood levels, with 2QFY9/12 net profit of MYR16m. While 1HFY9/12 net
profit made up 40% and 33% of our and consensus fullyear forecasts
respectively, this is in line as we expect a much stronger 2HFY9/12.
There is a long-term vacuum in the HDD supply chain which Notion is
filling. We think the stock is under-appreciated as its share price is
still below pre-flood levels. Maintain forecasts, BUY rating and
TP of MYR1.40 (4x EV/EBITDA), pending an analyst briefing today.
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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012
AMMB Holdings: Maintain Hold - Portfolio Rebalancing Continues
HOLD maintained. AMMB’s FY3/12 results were within our expectations and
consensus. Taking into account management’s guidance for FY3/13-15, our
forecasts are little changed. While we view positively the
transformation at AMMB, valuations are fair and our TP of MYR6.30 is
maintained (2012 P/BV of 1.6x, 14.1% ROE).
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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 18 May 2012
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Media Prima: Maintain Hold - Down But Not Out
1Q12 likely to have been the trough. Media Prima’s (MPR) 1Q12 results
were a tad below expectations due to a higher than expected discounting
rate at its TV segment. No interim dividends were declared. That said,
we are more upbeat on its prospects going forward due to signs of
recovery in consumer sentiment and stabilising newsprint prices.
Maintain earnings forecasts, HOLD call and MYR2.34 TP.
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
MISC: Upgrade to Hold - Down But Not Out
Upgrade to HOLD, TP revised to MYR4.80. 1Q12 results were hit by several
one-offs and huge losses at the liner division. We expect earnings to
recover in 2Q12 as MISC progressively exits from the liner operations.
Trading below book value, we upgrade MISC to a HOLD.The upside to our
new TP warrants a more aggressive call but at this stage, the outlook
remains hazy for the petroleum and chemical divisions particularly amid
rising external economic headwinds.
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
Hong Leong Bank: Maintain Hold - Solid, But Little To Excite In 3Q
Hold maintained. HL Bank's 9MFY12 net profit of MYR1.25b (+49% YoY) was
broadly within our expectations (74% of full-year) and consensus (77%).
Provisions were lower than expected, but this was offset by non-interest
income coming in at the low end. Fundamentals of the group remain solid
but there was little to excite in the results, with trailing loan
growth and NIM compression. Our forecasts are retained. Our TP is
unchanged at RM11.60 (P/BV of 1.7x, CY2012 ROE: 15.5%).
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
SapuraKencana Petroleum: Buy - New Outfit, Bright Prospect
Initiate coverage with a Buy and MYR2.68 target price.
SapuraKencana is an emerging powerhouse with a regional reach, global
aspiration and capabilities, and headed by a dedicated, experienced and
professional management team. It is a steady growth stock, asset rich
and balance sheet light, and well equipped to capitalize on
opportunities, locally and globally. Our target price pegs SapuraKencana
at 20x FY1/14 EPS, with upside bias.
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 17 May 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Yinson Holdings: Maintain Buy - Steady On Course; Excitement Ahead!
Expecting bigger projects. Our two-day site visit to Yinson's operations
in Vietnam uncovered promising prospects. We believe Yinson is gunning
for a second floater job within the next 12 months, which would equate
to a stellar win rate of one project per year. Developments are smooth
at its associate Phu My Port, which could see potential earnings
contribution by year end. We reiterate our BUY call and MYR2.20
SOP-based TP which implies 9x FY1/14 earnings.
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
WCT: Maintain Buy - On Track For Growth
Maintain BUY. 1Q12 results, due on 22 May, should not disappoint. We
maintain our forecast of a 6% growth in net profit this year, although
there is a possibility that 2012 profits may positively surprise due to
revaluation gains. Strong property sales YTD and continuous job win
momentum in the next few months would provide the growth impetus to 2013
earnings. We reiterate our BUY call on the stock with an unchanged
MYR3.15 SOP-based target price (15x 2012 earnings plus a 20sen increment
from the KLIA2 IC concession).
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
S P Setia: Maintain Hold - Expanding Its Presence In Penang
Maintain HOLD. We are neutral on SPSB's latest land acquisition on
Penang island. Despite its strategic location, the MYR200psf land cost
appears on the high side. We expect development on the new land to only
contribute from FY10/15 onwards, hence there is no change to our 3-year
earnings forecasts. Target price is raised by 7sen to MYR4.00 based on
unchanged 10% discount to new MYR4.44 RNAV (+7sen).
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
Kinsteel: Maintain Buy - Don't Miss This Inflection Point
Turning around in 1Q12. 1Q12 net profit of MYR10m (4Q11: MYR68m core net
loss) made up 21% and 19% of our and street 2012 forecasts
respectively. We consider this to be outstanding, as we had only
expected positive earnings in 2H12. Maintain forecasts, BUY rating and
TP of MYR0.49 (0.7x P/BV) on: (i) earnings momentum, which should
sustain on the rollout of mega projects in 2H12; (ii) a share price at a
3-year low, having fallen 29% over the last 3 months; and (iii) limited
downside, as the stock is already trading at a low 2012 0.58x P/BV (vs.
the trough of 0.5x in 2009 and mid-cycle of 0.9x).
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
Malaysian Airline System: Downgrade to Sell - 1Q12: It's going to be ugly
Industry downturn making its mark. 1Q12 is expected to be severely
loss-making due to the impact of a 20% higher fuel price YoY and a weak
yield environment. The remainder of the 2012 looks equally grim and we
think MAS is struggling to get its turnaround strategy in place. We have
cut our earnings forecasts due to higher than budgeted fuel price and a
tougher yield environment. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower target price
of MYR1.00 from MYR1.55, pegged to 10.0x 2013 PER, which is the
mid-level valuation of the aviation cycle.
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 16 May 2012
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Bumi Armada: Maintain BUY - Buys two big-sized AHTS from Sanko
Maintain Buy and MYR4.88 SOP-based target price. Bumi's purchase of two
second-hand 12,000bhp AHTS at undisclosed prices from Sanko is a clear
indication of its intent to leverage on Petrobras' aggressive O&G
drive in Brazil. We estimate that these assets would add 2-3% p.a. to
Group's earnings and further enhances Bumi's regional footprint in the
Latin American market.
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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012
Media Prima: Upgrade to Hold - Getting a better reception
Worst likely over. We expect 1Q12 results to be weak but following
quarters to be stronger on recovering adex sentiment. Spot newsprint
prices are stabilizing at USD680-USD700/tonne. Media Prima (MPR)'s
balance sheet is stronger, allowing it to sustain recurring DPS at 10-11
sen p.a. thus delivering net yields of >4% p.a.. We raise our
2013-2014 earnings estimates by 11-13% and upgrade MPR to Hold from Sell
as its share price is now below our unchanged TP of MYR2.34.
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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 15 May 2012
Monday, May 14, 2012
Glomac: Maintain BUY - Glowing And Growing
Our top pick in the property sector. Glomac is very likely to have
exceeded its internal sales target of MYR500m for FY4/12 thanks to the
strong take-ups of its Reflection Residences (RR) despite the slowdown
in the broader property market. We continue to like Glomac for its
double-digit earnings growth at single-digit valuations. The
attractiveness is further enhanced by its REIT-like net yield of 4.9%.
We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR0.96 target price (49%
discount to RNAV). The stock is undervalued and should re-rate. BUY.
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Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012
Kinsteel: Upgrade to BUY - It’s A Steal!
Upgrade to BUY. Share price has fallen by 30% from its peak in Feb 2012
and is at its 3-year low. More importantly, we expect Kinsteel to
turnaround in its upcoming 1Q12 results on lower iron ore cost and
better local sales. We maintain our forecasts and TP of MYR0.49 (0.7x
P/BV). The stock now offers upside of 18%, hence we upgrade Kinsteel to a
BUY. At current share price, the stock trades at 0.58x P/BV, close to
its trough of 0.5x in 2009 and below its mid-cycle P/BV of 0.9x.
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Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 14 May 2012
Friday, May 11, 2012
Dialog Group: Maintain BUY - Below Par But Still Positive Overall
Maintain Buy. We cut FY6/12-13 forecasts by 2-17% following
softer-than-expected 3QFY6/12 results. Nevertheless, we remain positive
on Dialog's growth prospects; tank terminal operations in Johor will
sustain earnings growth over the long term. Overall, Dialog offers
exposure to a respectable business model, focused management, attractive
earnings growth with an increasing proportion of recurring income, and a
steady progressive dividend. Our SOP-based TP is unchanged at MYR3.05.
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Source: Maybank Research - 11 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 11 May 2012
Thursday, May 10, 2012
MMHE: Upgrade to BUY - Recovery In Motion
Upgrade to Buy, TP at MYR5.70 (20x 2013 EPS). 1Q12 results are on track
(25% of our full-year forecast). Yard space has expanded and order book
momentum is set to soar in 2H12. The improving outlook, coupled with a
44% fall in share price from its peak in 2011, makes MMHE's valuations
much more attractive now, in our view. MMHE is a direct proxy to
PETRONAS' domestic E&P programs.
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
Sunway Berhad: Maintain HOLD - Bags MYR1.2b MRT Contract
A major boost to orderbook. Sunway's latest MYR1.17b win for the KVMRT
Sg Buloh-Kajang viaduct works will boost its outstanding order book by
41% to MYR4b, and enhance earnings visibility over the medium term. We
maintain our earnings forecasts for now having imputed job win potential
to the tune of MYR1.5b for this year. Our RNAV-based TP is unchanged at
MYR2.62. Maintain HOLD.
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
Petronas Chemicals: Maintain BUY - 1Q12: Looking very positive
Supported by re-stoking and inventory buildup. 1Q12 results, to be
released on the third week of May, is expected to be highly profitable,
buoyed by high plant utilization rates of ±85% (1Q11: 83.6%) with no
major maintenance shutdowns, and strong product margins. Worldwide
manufacturing numbers were strong in 1Q12 which prompted heavy buying
for re-stocking and inventory buildup ahead of the traditional
maintenance shutdown period of March. BUY, with an unchanged TP of
MYR7.50 on 12x 2013 PER, the industry's historical mean PER.
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 10 May 2012
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Sarawak Oil Palms: Maintain BUY - Fundamentals Intact
Still bullish. 1Q12 net profit of MYR40m (-8% QoQ, -29% YoY) met 17% and
18% of our and consensus full year forecasts respectively. This is
largely in line with our expectations since 1Q is a seasonally low
production period, compounded this time by slow uptake of CPO and
increased fertilisation activities in 1Q12. Maintain BUY on SOP for its
strong 3-year FFB CAGR of 13% and cheap valuations, with FY13 PER of
10.8x and EV/planted ha of ~MYR46,900.
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Hartalega: Maintain HOLD - Awaiting New Capacity For Growth
Results in line. FY12 core net profit of MYR208m (+11% YoY) was within
expectations. We reiterate our HOLD call as near-term earnings growth is
capped despite solid demand for nitrile gloves (+20-30% YoY), Hartalega
is already running at full capacity and the bulk of the new capacity
from Plant 6 will only kick in in 2QFY3/14. We maintain our FY3/13-14
forecasts and introduce estimates for FY3/15. Hartalega's 3-year
earnings CAGR of 10% is respectable, coming from a high base. TP is also
retained at MYR8.50, based on 13x CY13 PER.
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Padiberas Nasional: Maintain HOLD - 2012 looks better relative to 2011
Rice prices likely to be low. The Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO) published its annual world rice outlook last
week. The pertinent points stated are production exceeds supply and
inventory levels are at record levels; the quick conclusion is that
global rice prices will likely trend down. This is good news for Bernas
as it will be able to source rice at lower cost and help boost margins
and profits. No change to our earnings forecasts which have incorporated
margin expansion. We maintain our Hold call given the limited upside to
our DDM-based RM3.40 target price.
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Perisai Petroleum: Maintain BUY - Entering the Rig Charter Space
Maintain Buy, TP of MYR1.13. Perisai has opted to buy a new jack-up rig
(with a Jul 2014 delivery date) with the option to acquire another (for
delivery by 2015). This is earnings positive and balance-sheet
manageable. We have highlighted a likely extension to its business in
the past although we reckoned a FPSO venture would have been a more
likely prospect. We still do not rule out this FPSO venture, which would
be a re-rating catalyst. Our TP tags Perisai at 11x 2013 EPS.
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Kencana Petroleum: Maintain BUY - The making of SapCrest-Kencana
Maintain Buy with a MYR3.86 target price. The MYR0.5b job win from
Murphy, its second contract from the oil major in 2012, is positive and
reflects vibrant O&G activities in the region. With peer MMHE facing
yard bottlenecks, we expect Kencana, with its ample yard space, to be a
major beneficiary among fabricators this year. We maintain our
forecasts, having incorporated MYR2b in job wins for 2012. MYR5b worth
of fabrication jobs are expected to be rolled out this year.
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
CIMB Group Holdings: Maintain SELL - A 60% Stake In BOC For MYR881m
No material impact. The acquisition of Bank of Commerce (BOC),
Philippines expands CIMB's presence into one of the most under-banked
markets in the region (loans/GDP of just 30%). There is no material
impact to financials in the medium term; however, as the 16th largest
bank in the country, there is much competition ahead. Our forecasts for
CIMB Group are maintained along with our Sell call and MYR6.80 TP (P/BV
target of 1.9x, 2012 ROE: 16.1%).
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Ann Joo Resources: Upgrade to BUY - Buy Ahead of Secular Demand Growth
Upgrade to Buy. We are turning positive on AJR due to: (i) pent-up local
steel demand from 2H12 onwards; (ii) a potential long-term high-margin
vendor contract from Petronas; (iii) stronger earnings in 2H12 upon the
completion of the fine-tuning of its mini-blast furnace (BF) offsetting
continued expected losses in the upcoming 1Q12 results. We maintain our
forecasts for now but our TP is raised to MYR2.20 (from MYR1.30), as we
attach a mid-cycle 1.0x P/BV target (vs. 0.6x trough).
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 9 May 2012
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Pavilion REIT: Maintain Hold - A Good Start
Maintain HOLD but raising TP. PavREIT's 1Q12 net profit was in line,
accounting for 28% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We reckon
the recent run up in its share price was due to spillover effects of the
potential REIT-ing of Kris Assets' retail malls. We maintain our
earnings forecasts but raise our target price to MYR1.26. PavREIT
currently trades at a 5.1% yield vs. CMMT's 5.8% and SunREIT's 6.1%.
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
MSM Malaysia Holdings: Maintain Hold - 1Q12: Below expectation
Raw sugar price and inadequate subsidy. 1Q12 core net profit of RM64.1m
(-27.8% YoY, -15.5% QoQ) after excluding non-cash items was below ours
and consensus, at 23% of our full-year forecast. This weaker result
underlines that the recent sugar subsidy mechanism revised by the
government does not sufficiently compensate for the higher raw sugar
input cost. This is a structural problem which is not easy for MSM to
muddle out from, and we believe that lower profit margins will prevail
in the quarters to come.
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
Fraser & Neave Holdings: Maintain Sell - A Huge Miss
Below expectations. Recurring group net profit plunged 80% YoY in
2QFY9/12 to just MYR17m, far below our and consensus estimates.
Cumulatively, recurring net profit in 1HFY9/12 was down 76% YoY. The
poor results were due to the floods in Thailand that caused the Dairies
Thailand plant in Rojana to report further losses in 2QFY9/12 after
being submerged for 40 days last year, and were exacerbated by the
relocation of Dairies Malaysia from Petaling Jaya to Pulau Indah. We
maintain our Sell call and target price pending an analyst briefing
today.
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 8 May 2012
Monday, May 7, 2012
Lingkaran Trans Kota: Maintain Hold - Awaiting the Next Catalyst
Maintain Hold. Traffic at the LDP has been higher than our forecast. We
therefore raise our traffic assumption for FY3/12, but marginally lower
our forecasts for future years after considering new competition. This
raises highway development amortisation, resulting in our net profit
forecasts for FY3/12-14 being lowered by 6-8% p.a.. The impact on our
DCF-based target price is however muted, as the higher FY3/12 traffic
assumption offsets lower traffic forecasts for the future years, and as
the raised amortisation charge in the P&L is a non-cash flow item.
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Source: Maybank Research - 7 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 7 May 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
Quill Capita Trust: Maintain Hold - Organically-driven growth
No surprises. QCT's 3M12 results were in line, accounting for 21-23% of
our and consensus full-year estimates. As expected, no dividend was
declared. No change to our earnings forecasts and MYR1.10 TP. Despite
its higher-than-average yield of 7.7% (gross) (vs. industry's 6.8%), we
maintain our Hold rating on QCT as we see high occupancy risk in office
REITs given the current oversupply situation.
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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012
BIMB Holdings: Maintain Buy - Hurdles for STMB in Indonesia?
No material impact. While there may be uncertainty surrounding Syarikat
Takaful's (STMB) shareholding in PT Syarikat Takaful Indonesia (PT
Takaful), we do not expect this to affect our earnings nor valuations
for the BIMB group. Growth over the next few years will be driven by
domestic activities while Indonesia really is the icing on the cake over
the longer term. Our Buy call on BIMB is maintained with an unchanged
SOP-derived TP of MYR2.95.
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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 4 May 2012
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Perisai Petroleum: Maintain Buy - Crafting the next move
An FPSO venture in the pipeline? We think Perisai will move into the
FPSO charter market for its next Malaysia project. This will be a major
positive and would be a catalyst to growth and re-rating. Its major
shareholder, Ezra will likely play a role in this development. Our
preliminary estimate suggests that this could lift EPS by 18% p.a. while
still keeping Perisai's net gearing at manageable level. Maintain Buy.
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Source: Maybank Research - 3 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 3 May 2012
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Quill Capita Trust: Maintain Hold - Driven by existing assets
Reiterate HOLD. QCT's 1Q12 results (to be released by tomorrow) are
likely to meet expectations. Expected 11% YoY growth in earnings will be
supported by existing assets given the lack of acquisitions last year.
Over the medium term, we continue to expect interests on office REITs to
be lacklustre given the current oversupply situation. We maintain our
forecasts and MYR1.10 TP on QCT. QCT now trades at 7.6% yield.
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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012
BIMB Holdings: Maintain Buy - Higher valuations warranted
BUY, with a higher target price. Higher valuations are warranted for
both Bank Islam and Syarikat Takaful (STMB), given their strong
underlying fundamentals. Pegging on higher P/BV valuations for both
companies, our SOP valuation for BIMB Holdings is raised to MYR2.95 from
MYR2.55, which implies 16% upside to the current share price. Our
revised target P/BV multiple for STMB (Not Rated) values the takaful
operator at MYR4.75, or 20% upside to its current share price.
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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012
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Source: Maybank Research - 2 May 2012
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