Tuesday, July 26, 2011

HLIB Research 26 July 2011 (Steel; Public Bank; Sime Darby; Traders Brief)


Steel (Neutral)

More corporate exercises n the pipeline?

§  We believe that several factors will also keep news flows within the Malaysian steel sector alive over the near term, in particular, M&As and upstream expansion plans.

§  In view of the potential corporate exercises ahead, we have shortlisted four companies that could potentially engage in the two corporate exercises mentioned above, which are: (1) Ann Joo Resources; (2) Hiap Teck Ventures; (3) Lion Group of companies; and (4) Perwaja Holdings Bhd.

§  M&A and upstream expansion aside, we also believe that CSC Steel is a potential privatization target by its parent China Steel (which owns 45% of CSC Steel), as it carries many characteristics of a privatization candidate.

§  Although corporate exercises could excite investors, fundamentally, we are maintaining n our Neutral stance on the steel sector, given the sector's unexciting near-term earnings outlook.

 

Public Bank (HOLD çè)

No Surprises "Again!!!"

§  2QFY11 results in line with HLIB and consensus.

§  Declare single-tier interim dividend of 20 sen.

§  1HFY11 20% earnings growth given that all line items heading toward right directions.

§  Loans growth on track to meet management's target of 14-15%.  New HP act has no significant impact.

§  However, guiding for lower NIM as liabilities re-pricing catch up and competitive pressure.  FY11 looking at 10-15bps reduction yoy.

§  Asset quality continues to improve.

§  Suspect minimum common equity ratio could be 10-10.5%.  Unless it is accelerated and much higher than expected, there is no need for cash call.

§  Maintain Hold and target price of RM14.22 (Gordon growth with ROE of 24.4% and WACC of 9.3%).

 

Sime Darby (BUY)

Reaches yard settlement agreement

§  Sime Darby Marine Puteri Offshore I (SDMPO I, a 50%-JV company of Sime Darby) entered into the yard settlement agreement and release agreement with Tetra Applied Technologies for the refund of US$21.6m in return for SDMPO I releasing its claims, rights and interests over the derrick lay barge (DLB, which was supposed to be used in the Maersk Oil Qatar Project).

§  All in, SDMPO I will receive up to US$14.7m (RM44.2m) of the total refund of US21.6m, representing a 28% recovery from the provision of RM155m.

§  Positive albeit non-recurring, as the RM22.1m writeback will lift Sime Darby's FY12 earnings by 0.6% to RM3,631m.

§  Maintain SOP-based TP of RM10.99 and BUY recommendation on the stock.

 

FBM KLCI - Held hostage by U.S. debt deal 

§  As technical indicators are weakening amid a breakdown of 1561 pts (50-d SMA), there is greater pressure that KLCI may retest last week's low of 1552 pts. A breach below 1552 pts will exert more selling force towards 1543 pts (100-d SMA) and 1536 (50% FR from 1474-1597) pts.  Upside resistance levels are 1570 (30-d SMA), 1576 (mid Bollinger band) and record high 1597 pts.

 

Dow Jones

§  On Wall St, if a debt limit deal can be ironed out before 2 Aug, the Dow is expected to consolidate near 12340 pts, before retesting the downtrend line resistance near 12720 pts and 12843 (upper Bollinger band). On the other hand, failure to reach a deal by 2 Aug will trigger a downward correction towards   uptrend line support near 12000 and 3M low of 11822 (16 June) levels.

 


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