Wednesday, June 30, 2010

MMosacs Privatization? (CIMB)

Main Board-listed maker and trader of mosaic and ceramic tiles, Malaysian Mosaics (MMosaics), may soon be taken private, according to sources. While details are still not available, it is worth noting that the stock is currently trading at about half its NTA.

“Privatisation makes sense; the stock is already tightly held,” a source said. At yesterday’s closing price, it would cost major shareholder, Gek Poh (Holdings) Sdn Bhd, about RM30m to buy the remaining 27% stake it does not already own. Gek Poh is a private entity controlled by Datuk Seri Panglima Lau Cho Kun. (Financial Daily)

RHB Research downgrades plantation to Neutral (Edge)

RHB Research is downgrading its call on the PLANTATION [] sector to Neutral (from overweight) as it believes there are not many positive catalysts to move crude palm oil (CPO) prices up in the near term.

The research house said on Wednesday, June 30 that it therefore expects plantation share prices to remain lacklustre.

'Despite our now more cautious outlook for the sector for the short term, we maintain our CPO price forecasts of an average of RM2,500/tonne for 2010, RM2,700 for 2011 and RM2,500 for 2012,' it said.

RHB Research said it was rolling forward its valuation targets to CY11 (from CY10). It believed earnings growth for the planters in the medium term are no longer exciting, while big premium valuations are no longer justified.

Kencana - Maintain OUTPERFORM (CIMB)

New contracts (Malaysia, India and Australia) and new ventures (offshore support and drilling) fuel our optimism on Kencana. We continue to like the company for its favourable earnings prospects and its strategy of moving up the value chain with the new ventures.

As we have factored in RM1bn worth of new contract wins p.a., we maintain our earnings forecasts and target price of RM2.15, pegged to an unchanged target market P/E of 15x. We continue to rate Kencana an OUTPERFORM, with the potential share price triggers being 1) active order book replenishment, and 2) M&As.

Stock to Watch - Wed, 30 June 2010

* APM Automotive Holdings (RM4.26, SELL) – Strong resistance lies ahead.
* Kumpulan Europlus (RM0.905, SELL) – Bearish divergences seen.
* Hai-O Enterprise (RM3.69, SELL) – Violated its medium term support trend line.
______________________________________________________________________

1. APM Automotive Holdings (RM4.26, SELL)

____________________________________________________________________

2. Kumpulan Europlus (RM0.905, SELL)

____________________________________________________________________

3. Hai-O Enterprise (RM3.69, SELL)

OSK Research maintains Buy on Petra Perdana

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy on Petra Perdana with a target price of RM1.77 based on the existing PER of 9x FY11 earnings.

“Currently, we understand that there are still a tussle between the 2 groups of Petra shareholders and hope of this being resolved soon. Otherwise, Petra faces the risk of losing out on new vessel contract awards to its listed peers like Alam Maritim and Tanjung Offshore,” it said on Wednesday, June 30.

OSK Research said however, going forward, should the internal strife be resolved, it believed Petra could possibly be the biggest beneficiary of new vessel contract awards.

The factors are because: 1) it has spare capacity, with an average utilization of below 50% now, and 2) deepwater projects like Gemusut should start first oil production in 2011 and Petra’s 10,000 to 12,000 brake horsepower vessels should come in handy here."

Quiet Market Ahead For The World Equities Market ????

Dow Jones Industrial Average is not doing well at this moment. Malaysia share market is not moving anywhere also. Shanghai Stock Exchange drop sharply yesterday -4.3%. Current sentiment is telling us that we still have to wait for more stability in the overall world equities market.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing more weaknesses rather than healthier sign, we should be staying out for a while and watch how our share market is going to react against current situation.

With the on going 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa, sentiment still looks a bit quiet with most of the share market player still pay more attention towards this world prestigious football. Everyone is talking about football but less people are talking about share market.

Right now I don't have any comments towards the FBM-KLCI movement because I didn't foreseen any interesting indicator that will lead the share market to move higher but if we take a look for the past 2 to 3 weeks share market movement, we can notice that the share market has been moving up for quiet some time. Maybe it is time for them to take a pause .....

Kencana ... Jun10

Kencana Petroleum Bhd is buying out its partner Mermaid Drilling (Singapore) Pte Ltd

with proposed acquisitions of the latter’s 75% stake in Mermaid Kencana Rig 1 Pte Ltd (MKR1), 40% of Kencana Mermaid Drilling Sdn Bhd (KMD) and 75% of Mermaid Kencana Rigs (Labuan) Pte Ltd (MKR Labuan) for a total of US$66.6 million (RM212.5 million) cash.

Under the inter-conditional proposals, the three companies will then become wholly owned units of Kencana, held under Kencana Petroleum Ventures Sdn Bhd.

The total price tag included the settlement of inter-company loans and other debts amounting to US$22.95 million.

Mokhzani controls 39.19% of Kencana’s equity.

MKR1 owns and operates a self-erected rig and derrick equipment which is likely to be commissioned in the second half of 2010. The rig in turn is chartered out to MKR Labuan, which in turn has leased the rig to KMD.

KMD has been awarded a US$235 million contract by Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd for a five-year contract, with an option for an additional five years’ charter. MKR1 has taken a loan of US$68 million, out of which some US$15.95 million is drawn down, which will be fully settled pursuant to the acquisition.

The acquisition would be funded via a mix of cash and bank borrowings. As at end-January 2010, Kencana had cash and cash equivalents amounting to RM577.83 million and receivables, deposits and prepayments amounting to RM262.74 million.

For the first half of its fiscal year ending July 31, 2010 (FY10), Kencana posted a net profit of RM63.12 million on the back of RM531.14 million in revenue, with an earnings per share (EPS) of 6.97 sen. For the corresponding period a year earlier, it posted a net profit of RM60.31 million on RM592.58 million in sales, with an EPS of 6.69 sen.

As at end-May 2010, Kencana had an order book of RM1.9 billion.

Its proposed acquisition of O&G assets is a sign of things to come in the sector. Smaller players in the industry are accumulating assets across the value chain to improve their chances of winning jobs from Petronas.

Petronas has rolled out its domestic capital expenditure, with more than RM10 billion worth of jobs to be awarded to O&G players, so competition is stiff.

The exercise will transform Kencana from being a solely a fabricator to owning downstream assets such as the offshore drilling company. Kenanca has said the acquisitions will increase the group’s involvement in the drilling rig operations by Petronas.

Industry observers say Kencana’s corporate exercise will put the group in a strategic position to secure some of the larger O&G jobs to be awarded by Petronas. An industry observers says given that jobs are more likely to be awarded to bigger O&G players, a large asset size is key to securing contracts.

In the past Petronas would break up portions of the contracts to be awarded to several O&G players. But now, the new Petronas management is likely to favour companies with assets that have the ability to provide end to end services.

This stems from the government’s call to have fewer but larger and more efficient O&G players under the 10MP. Minister in the PM’s Dept Datuk Seri Idris is leading a group of comprising representatives from the private and public sectors to come out with a master plan to develop a cluster of large O&G players.

Kencana has an order book of rm2 billion currently. Fabrication is Kencana’s mainstay, with some 80% of its revenue coming from this area of business. Hence, it is not surprising the group is aggressively acquiring assets to step up its competitiveness.

Industry players expect the competition to heat up among O&G players, especially with the impending listing of Malaysia marine & Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd (MMHE) – a unit of Petronas – in Oct 2010.

The listing of MMHE and higher contract flows to O&G players should stir up the sector.

FBM KLCI...A Sucker Rally?

While the local market seems resilient amid weakening world bourses, one needs to start examining the substance behind this.
Two key considerations that should be taken into account are:-
1. Market behaviour of leading markets [Negative]


2. Valuation [Negative]

CI Hldgs may stage follow-through rebound

SHARE prices on Bursa Malaysia continued to consolidate with expanded trading ranges yesterday. Overall declining counters outpaced advancing counters by 175 to 514.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) fell from its intra-day high of 1,331.09 to its intra-day low of 1,315.82. It closed at 1,319.84 points, giving a day-on-day loss of 5.70 points, or 0.43 per cent.

CI Holdings Bhd closed at RM2.59 yesterday, posting a day-on-day gain of 14 sen, or 5.71 per cent.

Chartwise, CI Holdings' daily price trend rose from its low of RM2.09 on May 25 to its intra-day high of RM2.60 yesterday, recording a total gain of 51-sen, or 24.40 per cent.

Its hourly price trend staged a technical breakout of its intermediate-term overhead downtrend (B1:B2) on June 29, 2010 and continued to stay above it.

Its hourly fast MACD (moving average convergence divergence) stayed above its hourly slow MACD yesterday. Both its hourly fast and slow MACDs continued to stay above their respective neutral reference lines.

CI Holdings' hourly price trend is likely to stage a follow-through technical rebound.

The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

SSEC broke below the 2500 support

SSEC index dropped 108.22 or 4.27% to 2427.05 as at 3.01 am EDT. This means that SSEC index has just broken below the 'horizontal' support (S2-S2) at 2500. See Chart 1 below.


Chart 1: SSEC index's daily chart as at June 28, 2010 (Source: Stockcharts)

From Chart 2, we can see that today's sharp fall has also violated the Channel line support at 2450. The next support would be from the horizontal lines at 2400 & 2100.


Chart 2: SSEC index's daily chart as at June 28, 2010 (Source: Stockcharts)

The bearish breakdown in SSEC could be in reaction to the result of the G-20 meeting which seems to put more emphasis on fiscal tightening. This has disappointed many economists who think that the global economy recovery is too fragile for any significant withdrawal of economic stimulus. Paul Krugman wrote an interesting opinion piece entitled 'The Third Depression' recently on this topic.

In view of the role of SSEC index as a 'leading' index among equity markets- it was the first to recover in late 2008 & the first to peak in mid-2009- its bearish breakdown could be a warning of further downside for the equity market.

Massive Rally after Bear Markets

Finance Trends Matter has a post about Massive Rally after Bear Markets. There are two points that you can take away from the post. Firstly, market can rally for a long period (1000 days or more) after a massive bear phase. Secondly, these rallies would encounter a period of correction approximately 250-450 trading days after the start of the rally. It so happens that we are about to enter this period where market weakness is expected. So, we must be careful not to be sucked into the current market weakness.


Chart: Rallies after Massive Bear Markets (Source: Chart of the Day)

For more, go to here or here.

Should I Be Optimistic On Kencna?

Kencana reported its earnings last night. The numbers were impressive (by itself - hehe.. meaning to say let's discount the local market expectations/comments on it).

Here is a simple compiled table on how Kencana has fared since listing.



ttm = trailing twelve months earnings.

Now using the ttm earnings as a simple gauge, it's most likely that Kencana would register another good profitable year for its current fiscal 2010. That's how I would ass-u-me. ( And for numbers/math fans, that should be about an annual compounded growth rate of 21.48% since fy 2007!)
Now stocks don't get rated by the market based on current numbers. They are always rated based on FUTURE expected numbers. Yeah, in simple terms, expected or estimated earnings. That's what I have been told. Hope I am not wrong.
So what's the current market expectations on Kencana?
Take OSK.



Now as I can see OSK's fy 2010 estimates is about 129 million, which is pretty close to what Kencana is doing now. However, Kencana is rated based on the FY11 estimate numbers.

OSK estimates Kencana fy11 profits to be at 191.8 million and uses a PE multiple of 16x for its fair value recommendation. This gives it a BUY target of 2.06!

CIMB numbers are actually higher than OSK! (LOL!)


CIMB estimates Kencana fy11 profits to be at 213.2 million and uses a PE multiple of 15x for its fair value recommendation. This gives a buy target of 2.15.

LOL! Yeah, OSK numbers are not the highest.
Now on the other side, RHB gave it an underperform rating with a price only 1.27!

RHB estimates Kencana fy11 profits to be at 160.9 million and uses a PE multiple of 13x for its fair value recommendation. This gives a buy target of 1.27.

Hmmm....
Obviously, the key or the bone of contention is the fy11 numbers. OSK gave it 191.8 million, CIMB gave it 213.2 million and RHB only gave it a 160.9 million.
So who should I believe in?
Do I believe that cows can fly? :P
Would a look at Kencana's recent quarterly earnings help. How about we compile Kencana's most recent 8 quarterly earnings numbers to help us gauge if the fy11 numbers are achievable or not.
Anyway, here's the compiled table...

Now would I NOT say that judging by Kencana's most recent or latest 4 quarterly earnings, Kencana is averaging around 30-31 million only.

Now if I take CIMB's estimates of around 213.2 million. Divided by 4, CIMB is telling me that Kencana should be averaging net earnings of around 53 million, per quarter. Based on its ttm numbers, Kencana is averaging only around 31 million! So for Kencana to jump from 31 million to around 53 million, that's a jump or growth of 22 mil ( 53 - 31 = 22 mil) per quarter.
And let's see... this is about 70% increase, yes?
I hope my cow-cool-lator is not as faulty as my brains. :P
70% growth woh.
Hmmm.... so would I be wrong to say that perhaps CIMB is overly optimistic?
Ok.. the least optimistic is RHB and RHB's estimate is around 160.9 million. Divided by 4, that should work out to an average estimate of 40 million per quarter. Again, based on its ttm numbers, Kencana is only averaging about 31 million per quarter. So based on an estimate of 40 million per quarter, this still works out to an increase of around 29%.
Yes, despite being most under optimistic, RHB still expects Kencana's earning to grow around 29%!
Hmmm..... Ken ah?

Stock to Watch - Tue, 29 June 2010

* Green Packet (RM1.00, SELL) – Sell into strength.
* D&O Green Technologies (RM0.71, BUY) – A base pattern may have formed.
* NTPM Holdings (RM0.62, SELL) – Testing resistance trend line.
_______________________________________________________________________

1. Green Packet (RM1.00, SELL)

____________________________________________________________________

2. D&O Green Technologies (RM0.71, BUY)

_____________________________________________________________________

3. NTPM Holdings (RM0.62, SELL)

Faber ... Jun10

Sources say UEM group Bhd has stepped up its asset disposal programme by putting its 34% stake in Faber group Bhd respectively on the seller’s block.

It is believed that buyers have been hard to come by for Faber.

UEM Group wants to focus on its core businesses of property, construction and expressways.

UEM Group’s 34% holding in Faber, represented by 124.47 million shares, is worth some RM352 million based on rm2.83 a share.

Faber is involved in the integrated property management business. Speculations in the past that the Pantai Group of Hospitals was interested in buying Faber.

Faber has also the similar problem of getting buyers but for different reasons due to its valuation.

Faber’s NTA is RM1.11 per share and it had cash hoard of RM82 million in bank balances and RM254 million in short term deposits as at end of its 1QFY2010 ended march 31. Its borrowings totaled RM164 million in the same period while its trade and payables came up to RM257 million.

A catalyst for a re-rating of the stock is the impending renewal of its medical services concession sometime in 3Q2010. If the concession is renewed, it will further boost Faber’s valuation.

OSK Research maintains Buy on Kencana

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on Kencana Petroleum with a higher target price (TP) of RM2.06 from the earlier RM1.85.

The research house said on Tuesday, June 29 the higher TP was based on existing PER of 16x CY11 EPS following its FY11 earnings upgrade.

“Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s performance,” it said.

OSK Research said although the fabrication portion of its current orderbook of RM1.6bn (comprising RM800m fabrication jobs and RM800m from MKR-1), would continue to be pared down pending new contracts, “we believe it would not have problems securing new contracts given its outstanding delivery track record”.

Kencana downgraded to 'underperform'

Kencana Petroleum Bhd, a Malaysian oil and gas services provider, was downgraded to 'underperform' from 'market perform' at RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd to reflect lower earnings assumptions.

RHB cut its earnings estimates for its 2010-12 financial years by 11 per cent to 19 per cent, the research house said in a report today. It also reduced its fair value to RM1.27 from RM1.52, RHB said. -- Bloomberg

OSK cuts price estimate on Hai-O

Hai-O Enterprise Bhd, a seller of traditional health-care products, slid 3.4 per cent to RM3.74, on course for its lowest close since May 25.

OSK Research Sdn Bhd cut its share price estimate to RM3.57 from RM4.42 to reflect slower earnings growth prospects, according to its report today. -- Bloomberg

Monday, June 28, 2010

Haio- the slide continued...

Results Update

Haio has just announced its results for QE30/4/2010. Its net profit dropped by 21% q-o-q or 10% y-o-y to RM14.3 million while its turnover declined by 25% q-o-q or 26% y-o-y to RM99 million. The decline in both sales & net profit was attributable to lower recruitment of mew members due to more stringent rules in lines with new regulations set out by the government.The company hopes to overcome the decline in sales by increasing its range of health supplement & skincare products.


Table: Haio's 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Haio's 21 quarterly results

Valuation

Haio (closed at RM4.12 last Friday) is now trading at a PER of 12 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 35 sen). With declining top-line and bottom-line, Haio might even trade at single-digit PER until the situation stabilizes.

Technical Outlook

HAio is still in an uptrend. However, the negative crossover of the MACD is signaling further decline in Haio's share price. It may find support at the 50-day SMA line at RM3.35.


Chart 2: Haio's daily chart as at June 25, 2010 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on the poor financial performance, I would rate Haio a SELL ON STRENGTH.

Stock to Watch - Mon, 28 June 2010

* Lion Industries Corporation (RM1.48, SELL) – Retracement level met.
* MK Land Holdings (RM0.32, BUY) – Broke out of its downtrend resistance.
* RCE Capital (RM0.635, SELL) – Hitting strong resistance.
______________________________________________________________________

1. Lion Industries Corporation (RM1.48, SELL)

____________________________________________________________________

2. MK Land Holdings (RM0.32, BUY)

_____________________________________________________________________

3. RCE Capital (RM0.635, SELL)

Glovemakers Earnings Review

Top Gloves (Q/Q/latest Qeps 22/23/ latest 21 sen, nta RM 3.37) Earnings Q/Q flat over 3 quarters. Fair value Fv with annualised PER 10 = 21 x 4 x 10 = RM8.40
Supermax (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 15/16/ 19 sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up but is it sustainable..?. Fv = 7.60 Revised Fv =7.60/1.25 = RM6.10 on bonus issue.
Kossan (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 9/15/ 19sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up. Fv =RM 7.60
Latexx (Q/Q/latest Qeps 7/9/ 10.5 sen, nta RM0.99) Earnings up. Fv = RM 4.20
Adventa (Q/Q/latest Qeps 3.7/6.4/ 4.6 sen, nta RM 1.36) Earnings decline. Fv = RM 1.90
Current prices: Top Gloves RM13.00 Supermax RM5.90 Kossan RM7.60 Latexx RM3.60 Adventa RM3.20

SAPCRES ... July10

By KENANGA RESEARCH

- 1QFY11 net profit of RM50.7m achieved 23% of our expectations (RM219.4m) and that of consensus (RM216.8m) underpinned by robust IPF and JV returns. Expected pick up in momentum going into 2QFY11 given seasonality with Q1 and Q4 typically impacted by the monsoon season.

- QoQ, net profit rose 30.8% due to the increase in IPF division earnings (+99%) with the start-up of the PCSB Umbrella contract and reduction in Marine Services division losses (-81.4%). JV earnings (RM11.3m) were sequentially down (Q4FY10: RM27.5m) due to skewed 4QFY10 on write back of over-provisions for some previously completed projects and a slight delay in the start up of the SapuraAcergy for the year.

YoY, net profit gained a whopping 97.5% again mainly on better margins from the IPF (+8.8ppts) and drilling (+9.7 ppts) divisions. The PCSB Umbrella project win and commendable JV contributions bumped up IPF margins , while improved drilling margins were caused by higher drilling charter rates garnered in FY10 for T9 and Teknik Berkat. Overall, net margins expanded 4.0ppts (1QFY11: 7.6%; 1QFY10: 3.6%).

Prospects intact for FY11. Management is positive as contracts are lockedin for their main earnings drivers (IPF, drilling divisions and their JVSapuraAcergy);
whilst optimisation of their fleet will continue as they mobilise their new assets (the L&T and Quippo-Prakash pipe-lay barges) which they have already received . Guided for profitable marine services division, within the year, will lend strength to bottom -line numbers, while to date RM8.1b order book (TLO: RM4.7b/ JV: RM1.9b (50% of RM3.7b)/ Drilling: RM0.7b/Marine Services RM0.8b) will last them at least 2 years based on their burn rate of RM3.5b per annum. Tender book is RM3b and increasing.

- Maintain BUY at RM3.09 TP on 18x FY11F. Our positive view on the stock remains gi ven their locked-in prospects. Earnings catalyst will come from the Group’s push for an expanded regional base (India/Australia/Japan) and sustained charter rates for their drilling contracts.

Gamuda upgraded to 'trading buy' at RHB

Gamuda Bhd, a Malaysian construction and infrastructure company, was upgraded to 'trading buy' from 'underperform' at RHB Research Institute Sdn on expectations it may participate in a mass rail project.

Its fair value was raised to RM3.85 from RM2.74, RHB said in a report today. -- Bloomberg

Kencana Q3 profit rises to RM36.5m

Kencana Petroleum Bhd's pre-tax profit for the third quarter ended Apr 30, 2010 rose to RM36.5 million from RM35.05 million in the same period of 2009.

Its revenue, however, declined to RM280.37 million from RM290.17 million previously, the company said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia here today.

For the first nine months ended April 30, 2010, its pre-tax profit rose by five per cent to RM120.1 million from RM113.89 million in the same period last year.

Revenue, however, declined eight per cent to RM811.51 million from RM882.75 million previously.

Going forward, Kencana Petroleum said demand for its core business -- engineering and fabrication of oil and gas production facilities, both offshore and onshore -- was expected to be encouraging.

'The marine engineering and offshore services are expected to expand the earnings base of the group.

'The board of directors is reasonably confident the prospect of the group remains positive,' it said. - Bernama

Saturday, June 26, 2010

SapuraCrest Petroleum

BUY RM2.23 Target Price: RM3.09

l 1QFY11 net profit of RM50.7m achieved 23% of our expectations (RM219.4m) and that of consensus (RM216.8m) underpinned by robust IPF and JV returns. Expected pick up in momentum going into 2QFY11 given seasonality with Q1 and Q4 typically impacted by the monsoon season.

l QoQ, net profit rose 30.8% due to the increase in IPF division earnings (+99%) with the start-up of the PCSB Umbrella contract and reduction in Marine Services division losses (-81.4%). JV earnings (RM11.3m) were sequentially down (Q4FY10: RM27.5m) due to skewed 4QFY10 on write back of over-provisions for some previously completed projects and a slight delay in the start up of the SapuraAcergy for the year.

l YoY, net profit gained a whopping 97.5% again mainly on better margins from the IPF (+8.8ppts) and drilling (+9.7 ppts) divisions. The PCSB Umbrella project win and commendable JV contributions bumped up IPF margins , while improved drilling margins were caused by higher drilling charter rates garnered in FY10 for T9 and Teknik Berkat. Overall, net margins expanded 4.0ppts (1QFY11: 7.6%; 1QFY10: 3.6%).

l Prospects intact for FY11. Management is positive as contracts are lockedin for their main earnings drivers (IPF, drilling divisions and their JVSapuraAcergy); whilst optimisation of their fleet will continue as they mobilise their new assets (the L&T and Quippo-Prakash pipe-lay barges) which they have already received . Guided for profitable marine services division, within the year, will lend strength to bottom -line numbers, while to date RM8.1b order book (TLO: RM4.7b/ JV: RM1.9b (50% of RM3.7b)/ Drilling: RM0.7b/ Marine Services RM0.8b) will last them at least 2 years based on their burn rate of RM3.5b per annum. Tender book is RM3b and increasing.

l Maintain BUY at RM3.09 TP on 18x FY11F. Our positive view on the stock remains gi ven their locked-in prospects. Earnings catalyst will come from the Group’s push for an expanded regional base (India/Australia/Japan) and sustained charter rates for their drilling contracts.

Stock data
Market cap (RMm): 2,847.1
Issued shares (m): 1,276.7
52-week range: RM1.40-RM2.58
3-mth avg daily volume: 1 ,587,063 s hrs
Bloomberg code: SCRES MK
YTD price chg: -10.1%
YTD KLCI chg: + 4.2%
Est. free float: 27.2%
Major shareholders:
Sapura Technology: 40.0%
Seadrill Ltd:: 23.6%
EPF: 9.2%

By Kenanga
Analyst: The Research Team

Friday, June 25, 2010

OSK Research Overweight on consumer retail sector

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research see brighter days ahead for the consumer retail sector and its top pick is Parkson Holdings where it has a Buy with a target price of RM6.75.

It said on Friday, June 25 Malaysia retail sales remained resilient in 2009, growing 0.8% y-o-y while companies under its coverage generally outperformed the industry. In 1QCY10, these companies delivered positive revenue and earnings growth. More importantly, they performed better in Oct-Mar 10 versus Oct-Mar 08.

'Despite the proposed subsidy cuts, we believe that retail sales will continue to be strong fuelled by better sentiment and economic recovery. We are OVERWEIGHT on the retail sector.

'Besides the favorable outlook, the sector is one of the highest dividends yielding, which makes it a good pick in anticipation of a volatile 2H10,' it said.

OSK Research's top pick is Parkson Holdings (BUY, TP 6.75), which is poised to ride on the strong recovery in China’s domestic consumption and Zhulian (BUY, TP RM3.77), given its solid fundamentals compared to its peers, as well as its attractive dividend yield."

HDBSVR maintains Buy on Gamuda

KUALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research (HDBSVR) is maintaining a Buy on Gamuda Bhd with a Target Price of RM4.35.

It said on Friday, June 25 that Gamuda is an excellent proxy to the Malaysian infrastructure story with the potential RM36 billion mass rapid transit (MRT) project doubling its RM6.5 billion orderbook.

'It is also an ideal proxy to the long term structural boom of the property market in Vietnam.
'For the first time, Gamuda has also guided for property sales in Vietnam of RM820m and RM1.25bn in FY11 and FY12, respectively, offering some upside to our forecasts,' it said."

OSK Research: Proton’s mid-term outlook bullish

KUALA LUMPUR:Proton Holdings Bhd's mid-term outlook is bullish as it continues to trend higher along the uptrend line, says OSK Research. It said on Friday, June 25 that a breakout from the RM5 tough resistance level would see the stock continue to stretch its uptrend.

'However, there is still initial resistance at the RM4.77 level. To the downside, there is immediate support at the RM4.39 level, followed by the RM4.17 level,' it said. OSK Research said the daily RSI closed at the 52.1 pt-level on Thursday, which means that the stock is currently not overbought and the door is open for additional gains."

AmResearch keeps Buy on SapuraCrest, unch FV RM3.12

KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reiterates BUY call on SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd (SapCrest) with unchanged fair value of RM3.12/share based on a CY10F PE of 22 times. The research house said on Friday, June 25 SapCrest remains its top pick in the oil gas sector.

The factors are its (i) Dominant position in the deepwater pipe-laying market; (2) Healthy balance sheet; (3) Sizeable oil gas asset ownership; (4) Substantial Seadrill equity participation of 24% currently; and (5) Strong FY09-FY13F earnings CAGR of 23%.

AmResearch said SapCrest’s 1QFY11 net profit of RM57 million came in within expectations, accounting for 25% of both its FY11F forecast of RM202 million and 23% of street estimate of RM217million.

'We caution that the group’s 4Q earnings tend to be the weakest due to lower offshore construction work during the monsoon season. Hence, we maintain FY11F-FY13F earnings. Group did not declare any quarterly dividend as expected,' it said."

Price estimate for Top Glove raised

HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd has increased its share price estimate for Top Glove Corp to RM14.45 from RM14.40 to reflect the company's earnings growth prospects.

The shares of Top Glove, the world's largest rubber-glove maker, added 0.8 per cent to RM13.10.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Stock to Watch - Thu, 24 June 2010

* Genting Plantations (RM6.87, SELL) – Short term weaknesses expected.
* EP Manufacturing (RM0.51, BUY) – Triangle breakout.
* OSK Holdings (RM1.32, SELL) – Still trapped in a consolidation mode.
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1. Genting Plantations (RM6.87, SELL)

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2. EP Manufacturing (RM0.51, BUY)

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3. OSK Holdings (RM1.32, SELL)


Stocks Run in Place After Fed, Housing Data (ext)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Stocks finished Wednesday's session where they spent much of the afternoon: near the neutral line and in mixed territory. Immediately after the Federal Open Market Committee announced it kept its key rate near zero and gave a somewhat melancholy assessment of the economy, stocks got some energy.



But a disappointing new-home sales report weighed on the markets throughout the day.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5 points higher, or 0.1%, at 10,298. The S&P 500 slipped 3 points, or 0.3%, at 1092, and the Nasdaq trailed 8 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 2254.



Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig continued taking issue with the 'exceptionally low ... for an extended period' language in reference to the key rate and remained the lone dissenter in the statement.



But a 32.7% tumble in May new-home sales set the market tone earlier in the day.



'Certainly the new-home sales data took the market down. It was trading higher after the selloff yesterday, but the truth of the matter is that the economic numbers that have been coming out for the past six weeks or so have been disappointing,' said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds. 'They've been putting the recovery into question and have been creating expectations for a weak recovery.'



Following the EIA's supply report, crude oil for August delivery declined by $1.50 to settle at $76.35 a barrel.



Elsewhere in commodity markets, the August gold contract settled $6 lower at $1,234.80 an ounce.

Tanjong downgraded by Credit Suisse

Tanjong Plc, a power and gaming group was cut to 'neutral' from 'outperform' by Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Tan Ting Min, who said the company will face 'strong headwinds.'

The brokerage cut its share-price estimate to RM17.4 from RM18.60.

The company lost 1 per cent to RM17.92, the most since June 1. - Bloomberg

HLG Research: Buy Freight Management on weakness

Written by HLG Research
Wednesday, 23 June 2010 08:36


KUALA LUMPUR: HLG Research says Freight Management’s share price, which surged to a 52-week high of 89.5 sen in November 2009, the share price tumbled to as low as 66 sen in February this year.

In its trading idea note issued on Tuesday, June 23 it said that Freight Management shares, instead of succumbing to the bears, prices bounced back after hitting the support trend line and consolidating within the 76 sen to 82 sen region.

“Currently, it is holding above the 100-day (77 sen) and 200-day (75 sen) SMAs. The next target to beat is 84 sen (76.4% FR from 89.5 sen to 66 sen), followed by 89.5 sen and our 3-month technical target of 96 sen, implying a 7x FY11 P/E (a 22% discount to its 5-year average of 9x),” it said.

MACD has swung back to the positive territory while its RSI is also above the 60 mark, accompanied by rising Money Flow Index.

“Traders may BUY on weakness. Major supports are 78 sen (40% FR) and 75 sen. Cut losses if prices fall below 75 sen as a violation of the 200-day SMA would indicate that the trend has turned negative,” it said.

Listed on the Second Board in February 2005, Freight Management was transferred to the Main Board in December 2007. It is a logistics player providing sea, rail and air freight services, tug and barge services, as well as warehouse/distribution and custom brokerage services.

It focuses on a “multimodal” concept, providing the full range of freight services, with consolidation of both LCL (less than a container load) and FCL (full container load). ??Listed logistic sector rivals include Century Logistics, ILB, Nationwide, Haisan, Tasco and Yinson.

FY09’s revenue breakdown - 58% from sea freight, followed by customs brokerage (12%), tug & barge (11%), airfreight (8%), warehouse & distribution (5%) and others (6%).

9MFY10 geographical revenue breakdown - 77.6% from Malaysia, followed by Singapore (9.6%), Australia (6.5%), Indonesia (4.5%) and others (1.8%).

“At 81 sen, it is trading at 5.9x P/E and 0.91x P/B for FY11, supported by a decent yield of 7.4% and strong EPS CAGR of 14% from FY09-11,” it said.

KNM Group: Sell, fair value RM0.42


AMRESEARCH Sdn Bhd has maintained its 'sell' call on KNM Group Bhd (7164) and said that a re-rating of the stock at this point is still premature.

Its fair value of the stock at 42 sen per share remains unchanged, based on a financial year 2010 forecast (FY10F) price earnings ratio of 12 times.

'We retain our forecasts at this juncture, given that KNM's order book replenishment remains uncertain. But we highlight that our FY10F-FY12F earnings estimates are 22-36 per cent below street estimates,' it said in a report yesterday.

The research house said the re-rating was premature due to depressed breakeven utilisation levels, likely continuation of margin pressure in second half of FY10F, clouded prospects of increasing its order book, and KNM's poor earnings deliverance over the past five quarters.

As the group's operating costs are likely to remain high, KNM's margin is likely to remain under pressure in 2HFY10 if there is no significant improvement in order for replenishment over the next two quarters.

The research house said it remains cautious over KNM's target of securing new orders of RM2 billion in FY10F.

Read more: KNM Group: Sell, fair value RM0.42 http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/jknm17/Article/index_html#ixzz0riXmFfuQ
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Demand of rubber gloves still ahead of supply

Demand of rubber gloves still ahead of supply
Tags: Brokers Call | Datuk Seri Stanley Thai | Kossan | Latex price | OSK Investment Research | Rubber glove manufacturers | rubber gloves | Supermax Corporation Bhd | Top Glove

Written by Financial Daily
Wednesday, 23 June 2010 10:19

Rubber gloves
Maintain overweight: Recently, we invited Supermax Corporation Bhd executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai to give fund managers an update on the rubber glove industry. We gather that demand is still strong as most of the rubber glove manufacturers have sold forward up to September 2010 in spite of the current high selling prices of gloves reflecting a rise in latex price. Although margins will dip as glove makers only pass on the cost increase to their customers, most importantly the absolute net profit figures will be maintained and therefore EPS and fair values are intact. We remain overweight on the sector, with our top picks being Top Glove (Buy, TP: RM15.15), Supermax (Buy, TP: RM9.11) and Kossan (Buy, TP: RM11.30).

The global annual consumption of medical examination and surgical gloves is expected to reach about 155 billion pieces by 2011 from 135 billion pieces in 2009, boosted by growing healthcare awareness after the H1N1 pandemic and healthcare reforms in many countries and the recent passing of reforms in US as standards of living improve. Of the total world exports, Malaysia supplies 63% of global demand. Also, about 54% of the global market is shared among the top six rubber glove companies listed in Malaysia.

Medical grade gloves make up about 85% of Malaysia’s total glove exports. The product mix between natural rubber and nitrile gloves is in the ratio of 74:26 while that for powder-free and powdered gloves is 67:33. More than 70% of these gloves are sold to developed countries, and there is huge potential demand from developing countries like China and India in the coming years.



Latex price has remained at a high of about RM7 per kg. The US dollar is still struggling to regain lost ground against the ringgit. Although rubber glove manufacturers can pass on most of the costs associated with these negative factors to their customers, they may experience a time lag in adjusting prices, especially in supplying to non-healthcare MNCs. Nevertheless, as supply still lags demand since most of gloves are sold forward up to September 2010, we believe these two factors would not pose a major threat to the rubber glove industry.

We remain positive owing to: 1) continuously strong demand from the medical and hygiene markets; 2) increasing awareness of health and cleanliness following the H1N1 pandemic; 3) the possibility of governments in developing countries making compulsory the use of gloves for the medical sector; 4) a recovery in the global economy and living standards rise; and 5) local rubber glove manufacturers again embarking on capacity expansion to boost revenues and profits. — OSK Investment Research, June 22


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, June 23, 2010.
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