Friday, April 30, 2010

Axiata's fair value lifted, stock jumps (BT)

Axiata Group Bhd, a Malaysian mobile phone operator, hit a 19-month high after AmResearch Sdn Bhd increased its fair value to reflect “tremendous” profit margin expansion at its Indonesian unit in the first quarter.

The stock climbed 3.7 per cent to RM3.93 at 9:54 am local time in Kuala Lumpur trading. It ended the morning session 3.4 per cent higher at RM3.92 on course for its steepest gain since March 1.

RHB Research Institute Sdn. said in a note today that there may be a “potential upside” to its earnings forecast for Axiata after the company’s Indonesian unit reported first-quarter profit that exceeded the broker’s estimates.

AmResearch, in a report today, increased its fair value for Axiata to RM5.05 from RM5.


PT XL Axiata yesterday posted first-quarter net income of 598.4 billion rupiah compared with a restated loss of 217.2 a year earlier. -- Bloomberg

Stock to Watch - Fri, 30 May 2010

* Multi-Purpose Holdings (RM2.26, BUY) – Downtrend should reverse soon.
* Titan Chemicals Corporation (RM1.28, BUY) – A stronger rebound may be underway.
* Sunchirin Industries (RM1.62, SELL) – Momentum failed to keep up the pace.
______________________________________________________________________

1. Multi-Purpose Holdings (RM2.26, BUY)

_____________________________________________________________________

2. Titan Chemicals Corporation (RM1.28, BUY)


____________________________________________________________________

3. Sunchirin Industries (RM1.62, SELL)

Maybank's uptrend may continue

Maybank has just broken above its short-term downtrend line at RM7.50. As at 10.00am, the stock was up 12 sen to RM7.60.


Chart: Maybank's daily chart as at April 30, 2010_10.00am (Source: Quickcharts)

A cheaper option is to try Maybank-CL, which expired in August 2010. Its main terms are exercise ratio of 8-to-1 and exercise price of RM6.84. At the present price of RM0.115, Maybank-CL is trading at a discount of 2%.

Based on the above technical breakout, Maybank could be a trading BUY.

BJToto- poised for a bullish breakout?

BJToto has just broken above its horizontal resistance at RM4.50 as well as the downtrend line (which stretches back to May 2007) to record an intraday high of RM4.67. As at 9.45am, BJtoto eased back to the breakout level of the downtrend line at RM4.60. If BJToto can break above the downtrend line, we may see further upside to BJToto.


Chart: BJToto's weekly chart as at April 26, 2010 (Source: Tradesignum)

If BJToto can break above the downtrend line at RM4.60, BJToto could be a trading BUY.

Note: A cheaper option is to try BJToto-CF, which expired in Feb 2011. Its main terms are exercise ratio of 3-to-1 and exercise price of RM4.00. At the present price of RM0.20, BJToto-CF is trading at no premium.

Axiata may have a bullish breakout

Axiata has just broken above its short-term downtrend line at RM3.80. As at 9.15am, the stock was up 17 sen to RM3.97.


Chart: Axiata's daily chart as at April 30, 2010_9.05am (Source: Quickcharts)

A cheaper option is to try Axiata-CC, which expired in 5/8/2010. Its main terms are exercise ratio of 5-to-1 and exercise price of RM2.75. At the present price of RM0.22, Axiata-CC is trading at a discount of 3%.

Based on the above technical breakout, Axiata could be a trading BUY.

AMMB Share In Accumulated since Early Of March



















AMMB drop back and hold on around RM5.00 - RM 4.90 after hits high this year at RM 5.20. Base on the chart this share had accumulated since early of March and 4Q2009 Financial report will be review on mid-May.

Speculator may use the news to speculate up the share if world market no new bad news roll out. Most of the research house but TP for AMMB at RM5.50 so if we target AMMB hits back to RM5.20 in short term it call warrants already profitable more than 10% from now.

A quick look at TMC Life (29.4.2010)

TMC Life Sciences Berhad Company

Business Description:
TMC Life Sciences Berhad. The Group's principal activities are providing Gynaecological and fertility problem management services. Operations are carried out in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: LCNN Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for TMC Life Sciences Berhad


A quick look at TMC Life (29.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tZErp0UQF1zpu_9EEqrifSQ&output=html
Health is Wealth\

A quick look at Notion Vtec (30.4.2010)

Notion Vtec Berhad Company

Business Description:
Notion Vtec Berhad. The Group's principal activity is manufacturing high volume precision components and tools. Other activities include providing management services and investment holding. Operations are carried out principally in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: DBNN Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Notion Vtec Berhad

A quick look at Notion Vtec (30.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=th-zb5N9aeSPqWRxjfjDsnA&output=html
Health is Wealth

A quick look at DXN (30.4.2010)

DXN Holdings Bhd Company

Business Description:
DXN Holdings Bhd. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and selling health supplements and other products on a multi-level marketing basis. Other activities include property development; manufacture and sale of biodiesel and other incidental products; travel agent and tour operator; information technology consultancy and advisory, and wholesale and retail of stationeries, household items, gifts and accessories. It is also involved in the provision of management services and investment holding. Operations are carried out in Malaysia, India, the Philippines, the United States of America, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Mexico and other countries.

Wright Quality Rating: LBC0 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for DXN Holdings Bhd

A quick look at DXN (30.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tNWqXrnJuK8PSKHQj0su_UA&output=html
Health is Wealth

A quick look at KPJ (30.4.2010)

KPJ Healthcare Berhad Company

Business Description:
KPJ Healthcare Berhad(KPJ). The Group's principal activity is the operation of specialist hospitals. Other activities include investment holding, provision of management services, project management and engineering maintenance services for specialist hospital, pathology and laboratory services, marketing and distribution of pharmaceutical, medical and consumer healthcare products and provision of information technology related services, operation of private nursing college and rental of software. It operates in Malaysia ,Singapore and Indonesia.

Wright Quality Rating: CBNN Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for KPJ Healthcare Berhad



A quick look at KPJ (30.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=topP51LjhiJSMZi6ki0eWQA&output=html
Health is Wealth

A quick look at Chin Teck Plantations (30.4.2010)

Chin Teck Plantations Berhad Company

Business Description:
Chin Teck Plantations Berhad. The Group's principal activities are cultivating oil palms, and producing and selling fresh fruits bunches, crude palm oil and palm kernel. It also operates as an investment holding company. As at 31-08-2009, the Group has an additional 856 hectares of old and low yield palms that were planted, which results to 1,433 hectares of replanted and immature area. Operations are carried out wholly in Malaysia.

Wright Quality Rating: DAD8 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Chin Teck Plantations Berhad


A quick look at Chin Teck Plantations (30.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=ts2ELx0y0T1PyujEygq8qNA&output=html
Health is Wealth

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Stock to Watch - Thu, 29 April 2010

* Hap Seng Plantations (RM2.42, BUY) – A stronger rebound could be underway.
* D’nonce Technology (RM0.66, BUY) – Short term uptrend is intact.
* Puncak Niaga Holdings (RM2.63, SELL) – Sustainability is a concern.
______________________________________________________________________

1. Hap Seng Plantations (RM2.42, BUY)

___________________________________________________________________

2. D’nonce Technology (RM0.66, BUY)

____________________________________________________________________

3. Puncak Niaga Holdings (RM2.63, SELL)

Pantech ... Apr10

S & P Results Review & Earnings Outlook

 Pantech Group reported decent 4QFY10 (Feb) net profit of MYR10.3 mln (-3% YoY), despite a 52.4% YoY decline in revenue to MYR66.5 mln. FY10 net profit of MYR50.4 mln was within our expectations. Pantech also declared a final DPS of 1.2 sen, taking full-year DPS to 4.2 sen, better than our previous forecast of 4 sen.

 After contracting in 3QFY10, revenue from the trading division fell a further 55% YoY and 33% QoQ due to lower sales volume. The manufacturing division on the other hand recorded a 26% QoQ sales growth, albeit still some 40% off the peak in FY09.

 The lower sales revenue was offset by higher operating margins (at 19%), boosted by a partial writeback of inventory writedowns taken in FY09. Assuming half of the FY09 writedown (totaling MYR9.2 mln) was written back, 4QFY10 adjusted operating margin would have shrunk to 12%, not a surprise given the lower asset utilization.

 While the drop in revenue is worrying, we believe investors should be looking ahead to FY11 given the rebound in oil prices and resumption in activity. We expect a stronger showing in FY11, in line with an expected increase in oil & gas capital spending as the global economy recovers. Pantech should also ramp up its manufacturing operations following the lifting of antidumping duties on its products in August 2009.

Recommendation & Investment Risks

 We cut our FY11 forecasts by 12%, to factor in potential delays to our original assumption of new orders given the lower than expected 2HFY10 revenue. As a result, we bring down our call a notch to Hold (from Buy), with a lower 12-month target price of MYR1.00 (from MYR1.10). We also introduce FY12 forecasts in this note.

 We continue to value Pantech on a sum-of-parts basis, pegging the value of its businesses to its trading and manufacturing peers, which now trade at an average of 6.0x and 8.4x calendarized 2010 EPS respectively. Our target price includes a revised 4.2 sen DPS for FY11 (from 4 sen), and implies a 7x multiple against its calendarized 2010 EPS.

 FY11 should see increased activities in the oil & gas services sector, judging from the flurry of contracts awarded by Petronas toward end-2009. We expect this, along with the opening up of new markets and a recovery in the export markets, to drive a recovery in Pantech’s earnings for FY11 onwards.

 Risks to our recommendation and target price include: higher-than expected costs and volatility for raw materials and crude oil, which would hamper contract awards and hit earnings through inventory pricing adjustments.

Atlan riding on the duty-free trade boom

Background

Atlan Holdings Bhd ('Atlan')is an investment holding company whose subsidiary companies are involved in wide arrays of business. The company has three core business activities:

* Property Investment and Development
* Hospitality and Lifestyle
* Travel Retailing (via, duty free shops)
* Manufacturing

Recent Financial Results

Atlan has just announced its results for QE28/2/2010. Its net profit increased by 111% q-o-q to RM26.1 million on the back of a 12%-increase in turnover to RM204 million. The continued growth in both top-line & bottom-line was attributable to better performance for the Duty Free & Manufacturing Segments. As compared to the previous corresponding quarter (QE28/2/2009), the net profit soared almost 19 folds from a low base of RM140k. The low net profit was attributable to forex losses suffered in that quarter.


Table: Atlan's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Atlan's last 8 quarterly results

Valuation

Atlan (closed at RM3.38 yesterday) is now trading at a PER of 8.7 times (based on FYE28/2/2010 EPS of 39 sen). If Atlan can maintain its healthy growth in the past 2 quarters, we may see higher EPS for FY2011. Based on a PER of 10 times, Atlan's fair value is about RM3.90, giving a potential upside of 15%.

Technical Outlook

The long-term chart for Atlan shows a stock that is trapped within a symmetrical triangle, comprising an uptrend line that stretches back to 1998 & a downtrend line that stretches back to 1996-97. The uptrend line support is at RM2.50, while the 2 possible downtrend lines' resistance is at RM3.70 or RM4.05. Its immediate horizontal resistance at RM3.40 & RM3.20.


Chart 2: Atlan's monthly chart as at April 1, 2010 (Source: Quickcharts)

Others Comment

In an earlier post, I pointed out Atlan's overly aggressive share buyback program undertaken as well as its rather fanciful chart. The earlier comments would be my main reservation about this stock. However, its strong point would be its healthy growth & fairly reasonable valuation, which could lead to a steady rise in its share price.

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance and reasonable valuation, Atlan could be a good stock for long term investment. Technical outlook is however neutral as the stock is likely to trade between RM2.50 & RM3.70 until a breakout has been achieved.

FBM KLCI Still Hold Above 1,332 Level



















Yesterday Asia market was in red due to negative news flow in from US and Greek but for Malaysia the effect is not mach due to no many over sea investor in our market. Malaysia market is majority cover by EPF so as long as EPF or government did not sale share, FBM KLCI will not drop.

The good news is FBM KLCI still hold above 1,330 and I think bank sector may rise next month due to 1Q2010 financial result and OPR review. Likely the OPR will not change due to Bank Negara will not push the ringgit value more higher.

Now everyone is caution about the market will drop so likely the market will not so I think the market still have room to move up. To invest with minimum risk I think better keep only bank share and glove.

Dayang ... Apr10

Petronas Carigali is expected to call a tender for its offshore topside maintenance services in the next few months. Early estimates put the contract values for both Peninsular Malaysia (PMO) and Sarawak and Sabah (SKO & SBO) operations at around RM1.2 billion.

Dayang is currently the incumbent for the SKO & SBO while Vastalux holds the PMO operations.

Dayang is well poised to secure the contracts (especially the SKO & SBO) given its long-standing track record as well as ownership of a fleet of workboats which are assets required for the job.

Typically, a maintenance contract value tends to be higher than the original award as additional works apart from those stipulated may need to be carried out.

Similarly, the eventual value of the Sarawak Shell Bhd/Sabah Shell Petroleum Co Ltd (SSB/SSPC) contract could be higher than the RM400 million secured, or 1.25 times of the original value as a rule of thumb, translating into about RM500 million (FY10F contract wins assumption).

Meanwhile, it is understand that Borcos may make a provision for previous years’ taxation owing from vessels’ charter income. However, this is pending discussion with the auditors. Estimate potential downside of 6% in earnings could be made up by stronger contribution from Dayang’s oil and gas operations.

Dayang’s valuation remains undemanding at FY11F price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book-value (PBV) of 8.3 times and 1.6 times, respectively.

Dayang offers strong growth (FY09-FY11F net profit compound annual growth rate of 31.3%) and is a good proxy to oil and gas contract newsflow.

A quick look at Unisem (29.4.2010)

Unisem (M) Berhad Company

Business Description:
Unisem (M) Berhad. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and selling semiconductor devices and other related services which includes principally packaging and test services . The Group operates in Malaysia, the United Kingdom, the People's Republic of China, Indonesia and United States of America.

Wright Quality Rating: CBC9 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Unisem (M) Berhad








Announcement
Date
Date of
Change
Shrs Acquired/
(Disposed)
Director/Substantial Shareholder
Shrs Held
After Change
20-Apr-10

16-Apr-10

370,000

John Chia Sin Tet
165,972,700

14-Apr-10

13-Apr-10

1,430,000

John Chia Sin Tet
165,602,700

29-Mar-10

25-Mar-10

(1,000,000)

John Chia Sin Tet
164,172,700

29-Mar-10

25-Mar-10

(1,000,000)

Yen Woon @ Low Sau Chee
135,420,000

25-Mar-10

24-Mar-10

(1,000,000)

John Chia Sin Tet
165,172,700

25-Mar-10

24-Mar-10

(1,000,000)

Yen Woon @ Low Sau Chee
136,420,000

09-Mar-10

05-Mar-10

(1,000,000)

Lembaga Tabung Haji
28,121,500



A quick look at Unisem (29.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tBPdagB5NlJavnA0VzMF6Kw&output=html






Read also:




By V. Sivaji
22.3.2010

Unisem (M) Bhd, the country's leading semiconductor packaging and test services company, expects revenue to grow 44 per cent this year, bringing performance back to pre-crisis levels, as demand for semiconductor equipment recovers.

It is targeting RM1.5 billion revenue for this year. In the financial year ended December 31 2009, revenue declined 16 per cent to RM1.04 billion from RM1.23 billion previously.

However, its net profit surged more than threefold to RM61.8 million last year compared with RM19.8 million in 2008.

Unisem chairman and managing director John Chia anticipates the Asia-Pacific region to be the biggest market for the semiconductor industry, with Western economies and India lending strong support.

'Big corporations, which held back spending on upgrading of their computer systems last year, will start spending this year,' Chia said when met at Unisem's Employees' Service Award 2008/09 ceremony in Ipoh.
The company expects half of its revenue to come from its factory in Ipoh, with the rest contributed by facilities in Chengdu (China), Batam (Indonesia), Wales (the UK) and Sunnyvale (California).

The Ipoh plant is currently operating at maximum capacity, with a workforce of over 4,400.

'We intend to employ another 300 to 400 workers to sustain our production needs and meet maximum capacity. What a difference a year has made as 2009 was a difficult year during which stringent cost-control measures were placed. But we managed to get through the rough patch,' Chia said.

'Throughout 2009 we did not retrench any of our employees, but took prudent measures to control our costs and overheads.'

Chia is confident that all of Unisem's plants will see positive growth this year, projecting its Ipoh plant to lead the way with 40-50 per cent growth.

'Even though 2009 was sluggish for many, our plant in Chengdu saw growth of 60 per cent. And, this year, we expect 100 per cent growth coupled with China's economic growth and stimulus packages.'

Chia said the workforce in China has increased from 800 to 1,500, while its facility in Batam is expected to see 40-50 per cent increase this year.

Unisem has set up a subsidiary, Unisem Advanced Technologies Sdn Bhd (UAT), to offer 'wafer bumping' whereby customers will receive seamless integration of various services, including wafer backgrinding, wafer probe, dicing, final test and flip-chip assembly.

'We are now offering services not offered by our competitors, thus, putting Unisem in a stronger position,' said Chia.
Health is Wealth

A quick look at Freight Management (28.4.2010)

Freight Management Holdings Bhd

Business Description:
Freight Management Holdings Bhd. The Group's principal activity is operating in the freight and forwarding industry. It offers complete multimodal international freight services covering sea, rail, air freight and tuge barge services, customs brokerage and distribution container haulage and conventional trucking services. It also operates as an investment holding company. Operations are carried out in Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and Indonesia

Wright Quality Rating: LCB1 Rating Explanations
Stock Performance Chart for Freight Management Holdings Bhd





A quick look at Freight Management (28.4.2010)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tCRbHcnPniv_YU0cQTJLvgw&output=html

Current year prospects
The logistics sector of the Malaysian economy has seen a decline in activity due to the global economic crisis in the first half of the year 2009. Amidst early indications that the industry is moving towards recovery, the management remains cautiously optimistic in view of the prevailing uncertainties. The Group will continue its ongoing aggressive marketing efforts to boost sales and the management is actively working towards sustaining the Group’s lead position in its core business segments. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group is confident of some growth in the coming quarters of the financial year ended 30 June 2010.
Health is Wealth

Shang may have a bullish breakout

Background

Shangri-La Hotels (M) Bhd ['Shang'] is involved in the hotel operation & property investment. It owns 3 resorts, i.e. the Rasa Sayang Resort & Golden Sands Resort in Penang and the Rasa Ria resort in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah as well as 2 hotels, i.e. Shangri-La Hotel Kuala Lumpur and Traders Hotel Penang. For its property investment, it owns the UBN Tower which is located next to Shangri-La Hotel Kuala Lumpur.

Recent Financial results

For QE31/12/2009, Shang's net profit increased by 69% y-o-y to RM9.4 million on the back of a 6%-increase in turnover to RM105 million. Compared to QE30/9/2009, its net profit was lower by 26% despite a 13%-increase in turnover.


Table: Shang's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Shang's last 15 quarterly results

Valuation

Shang (closed at RM2.16 on April 28) is now trading at a PER of 22 times (based on annualized EPS of 10 sen). Price to Book is about 1.3 times (based on NTA per share of RM1.70 as at 31/12/2009). At these multiples, Shang is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Shang broke above its downtrend line at RM1.80 in October last year. It broke above the strong horizontal resistance of RM2.10 today, on thin volume. If it can recruit sufficient buying support, it may go higher. Its next resistance is at RM2.40 & then RM2.60.


Chart 2: Shang's weekly chart as at April 28, 2010 (Source: Quickcharts)

Conclusion

Its financial performance in the past two years has been unexciting & the stock is trading at its fair value. However, Shang could be a trading BUY as the stock has just broken above a strong resistance, albeit on thin volume.
"

Stock to Watch - Wed, 28 April 2010

* DRB-Hicom (RM1.13, BUY) – Underlying tone may have improved.
* Advanced Packaging Technology (RM1.03, BUY) – Only for risk takers.
* Parkson Holdings (RM5.65, SELL) – Gyrating in a consolidation mood.
______________________________________________________________________

1. DRB-Hicom (RM1.13, BUY)


____________________________________________________________________

2. Advanced Packaging Technology (RM1.03, BUY)

_____________________________________________________________________

3. Parkson Holdings (RM5.65, SELL)